Predictive Model Influenced by External Factors to Reduce Uncertainty in the Budget Forecast of a Gold Mining Company

Abstract

In this research we propose to apply the qualitative evaluation technique by points to the factors that influence the price of gold. In addition, we will simulate the context of 2015, a year in which the price of gold reached historical lows, and at the same time, a period in which the analyzed company was going through a period of crisis when seeing that its valuation was affected by the devaluation of its reserves and growth of debts with suppliers. The research was carried out for the forecast of the price of gold, the general budget of the company, the budget in the mine operations area and the budget of the plant operations area, but for reasons of space in the development of the paper we will only show the development with the price of gold and the area of operations in the process plant.