Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System

dc.creatorRúa Uribe, Guillermo León
dc.creatorRuiz Acero, Daniel
dc.creatorVélez Bernal, Iván Darío
dc.creatorPoveda Jaramillo, Germán
dc.creatorVelásquez Trujillo, Luz Elena
dc.creatorQuiñones Pinzón, Martha Lucía
dc.creatorZuluaga Giraldo, Juan Santiago
dc.date2023-04-27T14:01:50Z
dc.date2023-04-27T14:01:50Z
dc.date2006
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-23T17:41:52Z
dc.date.available2024-04-23T17:41:52Z
dc.identifierRuiz D, Poveda G, Vélez ID, Quiñones ML, Rúa GL, Velásquez LE, Zuluaga JS. Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System. Malar J. 2006 Aug 1;5:66. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-5-66.
dc.identifier1475-2875
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10495/34765
dc.identifier10.1186/1475-2875-5-66
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/9229719
dc.descriptionABSTRACT: Background: Malaria has recently re-emerged as a public health burden in Colombia. Although the problem seems to be climate-driven, there remain significant gaps of knowledge in the understanding of the complexity of malaria transmission, which have motivated attempts to develop a comprehensive model. Methods: The mathematical tool was applied to represent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two endemic-areas. Entomological exogenous variables were estimated through field campaigns and laboratory experiments. Availability of breeding places was included towards representing fluctuations in vector densities. Diverse scenarios, sensitivity analyses and instabilities cases were considered during experimentation-validation process. Results: Correlation coefficients and mean square errors between observed and modelled incidences reached 0.897–0.668 (P > 0.95) and 0.0002–0.0005, respectively. Temperature became the most relevant climatic parameter driving the final incidence. Accordingly, malaria outbreaks are possible during the favourable epochs following the onset of El Niño warm events. Sporogonic and gonotrophic cycles showed to be the entomological key-variables controlling the transmission potential of mosquitoes' population. Simulation results also showed that seasonality of vector density becomes an important factor towards understanding disease transmission. Conclusion: The model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the multiple interactions related to malaria transmission conducive to outbreaks. In the foreseeable future it could be implemented as a tool to diagnose possible dynamical patterns of malaria incidence under several scenarios, as well as a decisionmaking tool for the early detection and control of outbreaks. The model will be also able to be merged with forecasts of El Niño events to provide a National Malaria Early Warning System.
dc.descriptionCOL0008109
dc.descriptionCOL0015099
dc.format30
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherBMC (BioMed Central)
dc.publisherGrupo de Entomología Médica de la Universidad de Antioquia
dc.publisherPrograma de Estudio y Control de Enfermedades Tropicales (PECET)
dc.publisherLondres, Inglaterra
dc.relationMalar. J.
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rightsAn error occurred getting the license - uri.
dc.rightshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rightshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectAnopheles
dc.subjectColombia - epidemiología
dc.subjectColombia - epidemiology
dc.subjectMalaria Falciparum
dc.subjectMalaria, Falciparum
dc.subjectPlasmodium falciparum
dc.subjectDinámica Poblacional
dc.subjectPopulation Dynamics
dc.subjectFactores de Tiempo
dc.subjectTime Factors
dc.subjectModelos Biológicos
dc.subjectModels, Biological
dc.titleModelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.typehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
dc.typehttps://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ART
dc.typeArtículo de investigación


Este ítem pertenece a la siguiente institución