Assessment of climate change impacts on streamflow and hydropower potential in the headwater region of the Grande river basin, Southeastern Brazil

dc.creatorOliveira, Vinicius A. de
dc.creatorMello, Carlos R. de
dc.creatorViola, Marcelo R.
dc.creatorSrinivasan, Raghavan
dc.date2018-06-13T19:52:34Z
dc.date2018-06-13T19:52:34Z
dc.date2017-12
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-28T19:57:48Z
dc.date.available2023-09-28T19:57:48Z
dc.identifierOLIVEIRA, V. A. de et al. Assessment of climate change impacts on streamflow and hydropower potential in the headwater region of the Grande river basin, Southeastern Brazil. International Journal of Climatology, Chichester, v. 37, n. 15, p. 5005-5023, Dec. 2017.
dc.identifierhttps://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.5138
dc.identifierhttp://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/29449
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/9041178
dc.descriptionMaintaining water availability and electric energy production are the major concerns for the future in countries which are extremely dependent on their water resources like Brazil. The objective of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflow and therefore on hydropower potential of the Grande river basin headwater region, Southeast Brazil. For this purpose, the SWAT model was used to simulate the hydrological behaviour of the headwaters under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, obtained from the Regional Climate Models Eta‐HadGEM‐ES and Eta‐MIROC5 between the years 2007 and 2099. Through power duration curves we estimated the hypothetical average annual energy production at three hydropower plants installed in cascade in the region, being, from upstream to downstream, Camargos, Itutinga and Funil. These plants account for a potential of 277 MW. SWAT was able to simulate the streamflow of the Grande river basin headwaters and, therefore, to reproduce the observed monthly streamflow from the baseline period (1961–2005) reasonably well for all three hydropower plants. In general, the results indicated a significant streamflow reduction and therefore reductions in runoff during all the simulated periods and all radiative forcing analysed, when compared to the baseline period. Thus, these results led to reductions in hydropower potential and hence decreases of the annual energy production varying from 6.1 to 58.6% throughout the 21st Century.
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherRoyal Meteorological Society
dc.rightsrestrictAccess
dc.sourceInternational Journal of Climatology
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectStreamflow
dc.subjectHydropower potential
dc.subjectMudanças climáticas
dc.subjectPotencial hidroeléctrico
dc.titleAssessment of climate change impacts on streamflow and hydropower potential in the headwater region of the Grande river basin, Southeastern Brazil
dc.typeArtigo


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