Mortality from chronic respiratory disease in Brazil: time trend and forecasts

dc.creatorOliveira, Marcio Sacramento de
dc.creatorMontovani, Elisa Hypólito
dc.creatorEbole, Maria de Fatima
dc.creatorLeon, Antonio Carlos Monteiro Ponce de
dc.creatorMarques, Márcio Candeias
dc.date2023-05-19T14:59:27Z
dc.date2023-05-19T14:59:27Z
dc.date2022
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-26T20:30:36Z
dc.date.available2023-09-26T20:30:36Z
dc.identifierOLIVEIRA, Marcio Sacramento de et al. Mortality from chronic respiratory disease in Brazil: time trend and forecasts. Revista de Saúde Pública, v. 56, p. 1-13, 2022.
dc.identifier0034-8910
dc.identifierhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/58509
dc.identifier10.11606/s1518-8787.2022056003672
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/8858466
dc.descriptionOBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend of monthly mortality rates from chronic respiratory diseases in Brazil from 1996 to 2017, with forecasts for 2022, besides analyzing the possibility of achieving the goal of the Plano de Ações Estratégicas para o Enfrentamento dasDoenças Crônicas Não Transmissíveis no Brasil (Strategic Action Plan to Tackle Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases in Brazil) from 2011 to 2022. METHODS: This is an ecological study that uses data from Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM – Mortality Information System), Sistema de Informações Demográficas e Socioeconômicas (Demographic and Socioeconomic Information System) and PesquisaNacional por Amostra deDomicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua – Continuous National Household Sample Survey). We established the age range between 30 and 69 years old and the evolution of the rates over time was made by autoregressive integrated moving average models in R statistical tool. RESULTS: Premature mortality rates from chronic respiratory diseases are decreasing in Brazil as a whole, mostly in state capitals. There is also a trend to reach the Ministry of Health’s goal in most of the country. For capitals that tend not to reach the goal, there is an association between mortality and social indicators, healthcare network and frequency of smoking. CONCLUSION: This study intends to improve planning of the public health system for the control of chronic respiratory diseases.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidade de Sao Paulo
dc.rightsopen access
dc.subjectRespiratory Tract Diseases
dc.subjectMortality
dc.subjectChronic Disease Indicators
dc.subjectHealth Programs and Plans
dc.subjectTrends
dc.subjectEcological Studies
dc.titleMortality from chronic respiratory disease in Brazil: time trend and forecasts
dc.typeArticle


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