Modeling voting dynamics in a two-party system

dc.creatorPhan,Tin
dc.creatorNavas-Zuloaga,M. Gabriela
dc.creatorIgnace,Caleb
dc.creatorKribs,Christopher M.
dc.creatorCastillo-Garsow,Carlos W.
dc.creatorMoreno,Victor M.
dc.date2020-06-01
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-25T14:23:00Z
dc.date.available2023-09-25T14:23:00Z
dc.identifierhttp://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1409-24332020000100179
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/8818770
dc.descriptionAbstract The 2016 U.S. presidential primary election, characterized by unexpected results, provides an interesting context to study how citizens are influenced in deciding whether to vote and whom to support. Our aim is to determine which of those changes in voting behavior have the largest impact on the election outcome. We address this question by developing a class of models driven either by the effect of mass media or by social interaction among voters and non-voting members of two parties. The dynamics are modeled using four compartments with a transition matrix describing the evolution of a discrete-time Markov chain. Each model is studied and fit to poll data from the 2012 and 2016 U.S. presidential elections using numericamethods. A comparison across elections indicates that the social influence of each group changes from one election to another, but response to media is similar in both cases.
dc.formattext/html
dc.languageen
dc.publisherCentro de Investigaciones en Matemática Pura y Aplicada (CIMPA) y Escuela de Matemática, San José, Costa Rica.
dc.relation10.15517/rmta.v27i1.39970
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.sourceRevista de Matemática Teoría y Aplicaciones v.27 n.1 2020
dc.subjectMarkov chain
dc.subjectdynamical system
dc.subjectvoting behavior
dc.subjectpeer influence
dc.subjectmedia influence.
dc.titleModeling voting dynamics in a two-party system
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article


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