A Mathematical Model for COVID-19 with Variable Transmissibility and Hospitalizations: A Case Study in Paraguay.

dc.contributorUniversidad Nacional de Asunción - Facultad Politécnica
dc.contributorUniversidad Nacional de Asunción - Facultad de Ciencias Médicas
dc.contributorUniversidad Católica "Nuestra Señora de la Asunción" (PY)
dc.contributorUniversidad Nacional de Asunción - Facultad de Ingeniería
dc.creatorSauer, Carlos
dc.creatorPérez Estigarribia, Pastor Enmanuel
dc.creatorGrillo, Sebastian Alberto
dc.creatorSegovia Cabrera, Leticia
dc.creatorGarcía Torres, Miguel
dc.creatorGaona, Carlos
dc.creatorVázquez Noguera, José Luis
dc.creatorSEQUERA BUZARQUIS, VICTOR GUILLERMO
dc.creatorIrala, Sandra
dc.creatorPedrozo, Maria Esther
dc.creatorDe Los Santos Núñez, Eduardo Antonio
dc.date2022-04-29T23:15:54Z
dc.date2022-04-29T23:15:54Z
dc.date2021
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-25T13:30:32Z
dc.date.available2023-09-25T13:30:32Z
dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14066/3801
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/8806823
dc.descriptionForecasting the dynamics of the number of cases with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a given population is a challenging task due to behavioural changes which occur over short periods. Planning of hospital resources and containment measures in the near term require a scenario analysis and the use of predictive models to gain insight into possible outcomes for each scenario. In this paper, we present the SEIR-H epidemiological model for the spread dynamics in a given population and the impact of COVID-19 in the local health system. It was developed as an extension of the classic SEIR model to account for required hospital resources and behavioural changes of the population in response to containment measures. Time-varying parameters such as transmissibility are estimated using Bayesian methods, based on the database of reported cases with a moving time window strategy. The assessment of the model offers reasonable results with estimated parameters and simulations, reflecting the observed dynamics in Paraguay. The proposed model can be used to simulate future scenarios and possible effects of containment strategies, to guide the public institution response based on the available resources in the local health system.
dc.descriptionCONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología
dc.descriptionPROCIENCIA
dc.languageeng
dc.relationPINV20-40
dc.rightsopen access
dc.subject7 Salud
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectEPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL
dc.subjectSPREAD DYNAMIC
dc.titleA Mathematical Model for COVID-19 with Variable Transmissibility and Hospitalizations: A Case Study in Paraguay.
dc.typeresearch article


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