Oil Prices and the Complexity of the Export Basket: the Paradox of the Colombian Case

Los precios del petróleo y la complejidad de la canasta exportadora: la paradoja del caso colombiano;
Preços do petróleo e a complexidade da pauta de exportação: o paradoxo do caso colombiano

dc.creatorPalencia Hernández, Christian Andrés
dc.creatorRuiz Torres, Jesus Cristóbal
dc.creatorGodoy Ortiz, Andrés Daniel Aníbal
dc.date2021-10-06
dc.date2023-03-22T19:01:35Z
dc.date2023-03-22T19:01:35Z
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-06T17:49:13Z
dc.date.available2023-09-06T17:49:13Z
dc.identifierhttps://revistas.unimilitar.edu.co/index.php/rfce/article/view/5304
dc.identifier10.18359/rfce.5304
dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10654/43048
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/8692969
dc.descriptionThe objective of this article is to establish the effect of the fall in oil prices related to the complexity or technological intensity of the Colombian export basket, especially in industrial exports. To achieve this, three quantitative analyses were developed: i) a descriptive analysis through the Social Accounting Matrix, ii) the estimation of the impulse-response function of a structural VAR model between the exchange rate and industrial exports and iii) the calculation of the PRODY and EXPY indicators as an approximation to assess the change in the complexity of the Colombian export basket. The results found, indicate that the fall in oil prices around the world negatively affects —contrary to economic intuition — the complexity of the domestic export basket, since the Colombian production apparatus is highly dependent on capital goods imports and intermediate consumption for the production of greater technological complexity manufactured goods. As a result of the depreciation of the Colombian peso against the U.S. dollar, imports were affected, which in turn had an impact on greater complexity goods exports.
dc.descriptionEl objetivo de este artículo es establecer el efecto de la caída de los precios del petróleo en la complejidad o intensidad tecnológica de la canasta exportadora de Colombia, especialmente en las exportaciones industriales. Para ello, se desarrollaron tres análisis cuantitativos: i) un análisis descriptivo a través de la Matriz de Contabilidad Social, ii) la estimación de la función impulso-respuesta de un modelo VAR estructural entre la tasa de cambio y las exportaciones industriales y iii) el cálculo de los indicadores PRODY y EXPY como una aproximación para valorar la desmejora en la complejidad de la canasta exportadora colombiana. Los resultados encontrados en este artículo señalan que la caída de los precios del crudo a nivel mundial afectó negativamente —en contra de la intuición económica— la complejidad de la canasta exportadora nacional. Esto, fundamentado en que el aparato productivo colombiano es altamente dependiente de las importaciones de bienes de capital y de consumo intermedio para la producción de bienes manufacturados de mayor complejidad tecnológica. Como resultado de la depreciación del peso colombiano respecto al dólar americano, las importaciones se vieron afectadas, lo que repercutió a su vez en las exportaciones de bienes de mayor complejidad.
dc.descriptionO objetivo deste artigo é estabelecer o efeito da queda dos preços do petróleo sobre a complexidade ou intensidade tecnológica da pauta exportadora colombiana, especialmente nas exportações industriais. Para tanto, foram desenvolvidas três análises quantitativas: i) uma análise descritiva por meio da Matriz de Contabilidade Social, ii) a estimação da função impulso-resposta de um modelo VAR estrutural entre a taxa de câmbio e as exportações industriais e iii) o cálculo do PRODY e do EXPY como aproximação para avaliar a deterioração da complexidade da pauta exportadora colombiana. Os resultados encontrados neste artigo indicam que a queda dos preços do petróleo bruto em nível mundial afetou negativamente — ao contrário da intuição econômica — a complexidade da pauta de exportação nacional. Tudo isso, com base no fato de que o aparelho produtivo colombiano é altamente dependente da importação de bens de capital e do consumo intermediário para a produção de bens manufaturados de maior complexidade tecnológica. Como resultado da desvalorização do peso colombiano em relação ao dólar norte-americano, as importações foram afetadas, o que por sua vez impactou as exportações de bens mais complexos.
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dc.languagespa
dc.publisherUniversidad Militar Nueva Granada
dc.relationhttps://revistas.unimilitar.edu.co/index.php/rfce/article/view/5304/4831
dc.relationhttps://revistas.unimilitar.edu.co/index.php/rfce/article/view/5304/4891
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dc.rightsDerechos de autor 2021 Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
dc.sourceRevista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Vol. 29 No. 2 (2021); 167-196
dc.sourceRevista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Vol. 29 Núm. 2 (2021); 167-196
dc.sourceRevista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; v. 29 n. 2 (2021); 167-196
dc.source1909-7719
dc.source0121-6805
dc.subjectexternal shock
dc.subjectdeindustrialization
dc.subjectcapital goods
dc.subjectimports
dc.subjectcomplexity of exports
dc.subjectchoque externo
dc.subjectdesindustrialización
dc.subjectbienes de capital
dc.subjectimportaciones
dc.subjectcomplejidad de las exportaciones
dc.subjectchoque externo
dc.subjectdesindustrialização
dc.subjectbens de capital
dc.subjectimportações
dc.subjectcomplexidade das exportações
dc.titleOil Prices and the Complexity of the Export Basket: the Paradox of the Colombian Case
dc.titleLos precios del petróleo y la complejidad de la canasta exportadora: la paradoja del caso colombiano
dc.titlePreços do petróleo e a complexidade da pauta de exportação: o paradoxo do caso colombiano
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion


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