Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy
Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy
| dc.creator | Issler, Joao Victor | |
| dc.creator | Notini, Hilton | |
| dc.creator | Rodrigues, Claudia | |
| dc.creator | Soares, Ana Flávia | |
| dc.date | 2013-04-02 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-08-31T21:36:11Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-08-31T21:36:11Z | |
| dc.identifier | https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/3976 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/8559951 | |
| dc.description | This paper has three main contributions. The first is to propose an individual coincident indicator for the following Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico. In order to obtain similar series to those traditionally used in business-cycle research in constructing coincident indices (output, sales, income and employment) we were forced to back-cast several individual country series which were not available in a long time-series span. Our second contribution is to establish a chronology of recessions for these countries, covering the period from 1980 to 2010 on a monthly basis. Based on this chronology, we compare countries in several respects. Our final contribution is to propose an aggregate coincident indicator for the Latin American economy, which weights individual-country composite indices. Its behavior is then compared with the coincident indicator (The Conference Board – TCB) of the U.S. economy. We find that the U.S. indicator Granger-causes the Latin American indicator. | en-US |
| dc.description | Esse artigo tem 3 contribuições à literatura de ciclos de negócios. A primeira é a de construir indicadores coincidentes de atividade econômica para Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia e México, usando pesos idênticos para as séries de Emprego, Produção, Renda, e Vendas. Para tal, tivemos que fazer o back-cast de algumas séries chave para poder construir esses indicadores. A segunda é a de estabelecer uma cronologia de recessões para esses países no período 1980-2012 em bases mensais. Com base na última, fazemos comparações em várias dimensões. Finalmente, nossa última contribuição é propor um índice coincidente agregado para a América Latina, que é comparado ao índice agregado dos EUA. Esta comparação indica que o índice coincidente dos EUA Granger-causa o da América Latina, mas a recíproca não é verdadeira | pt-BR |
| dc.format | application/pdf | |
| dc.format | application/pdf | |
| dc.language | por | |
| dc.language | eng | |
| dc.publisher | EGV EPGE | pt-BR |
| dc.relation | https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/3976/6317 | |
| dc.relation | https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/3976/6321 | |
| dc.source | Revista Brasileira de Economia; Vol. 67 No. 1 (2013): Jan-Mar; 67-96 | en-US |
| dc.source | Revista Brasileira de Economia; v. 67 n. 1 (2013): Jan-Mar; 67-96 | pt-BR |
| dc.source | 1806-9134 | |
| dc.source | 0034-7140 | |
| dc.subject | Latin America | pt-BR |
| dc.subject | Coincident Indicators | pt-BR |
| dc.subject | Business Cycles | pt-BR |
| dc.subject | Kalman Filter | pt-BR |
| dc.subject | State Space Models. | pt-BR |
| dc.title | Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy | en-US |
| dc.title | Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy | pt-BR |
| dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | |
| dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | |
| dc.type | Articles | en-US |
| dc.type | Artigos | pt-BR |