Simulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herds

dc.creatorPerez, Andres M
dc.creatorWard, Michael P
dc.creatorCharmandarián, Armando
dc.creatorRitacco, Viviana
dc.date2020-12-15T14:32:00Z
dc.date2020-12-15T14:32:00Z
dc.date2002-08-30
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-29T20:07:51Z
dc.date.available2023-08-29T20:07:51Z
dc.identifier0167-5877
dc.identifierhttp://sgc.anlis.gob.ar/handle/123456789/1907
dc.identifier10.1016/s0167-5877(02)00043-0
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/8519874
dc.descriptionFil: Perez, Andres M. School of Veterinary Medicine, National University of Rosario (UNR); Argentina.
dc.descriptionFil: Ward, Michael P. Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, 1243 Veterinary Pathobiology Building, Purdue University; Estados Unidos.
dc.descriptionFil: Charmandarián, Armando. School of Veterinary Medicine, National University of Rosario (UNR); Argentina.
dc.descriptionFil: Ritacco, Viviana. ANLIS Dr.C.G.Malbrán. Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Infecciosas; Argentina.
dc.descriptionTransmission of bovine tuberculosis was quantified in three dairy herds located in south Santa Fe Province, Argentina. Using estimates of Mycobacterium bovis transmission (beta) and a Reed-Frost simulation model, the prevalence of tuberculosis infection in the study herds over time was investigated. The Reed-Frost model was modified by incorporating randomness in both beta and the incubation period (alpha) of M. bovis. The mean estimated herd beta was 2.2 infective contacts per year and did not differ significantly between the study herds. Modeling alpha as Poisson distributed (mean 24 months) best fit the observed prevalences. Infection was predicted by the model either to spread quickly (<10 years) within a herd and reach a high prevalence (>50%), or to persist at a low prevalence (<5-10%). The model was robust, predictions were realistic and the mean beta estimated was consistent with previous studies of bovine tuberculosis.
dc.languageen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relationPreventive veterinary medicine
dc.rightsnone
dc.sourcePreventive Veterinary Medicine 2002; 54(4):361-72.
dc.subjectTuberculosis
dc.subjectMycobacterium tuberculosis
dc.subjectSanta Fe
dc.subjectArgentina
dc.titleSimulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herds
dc.typeArtículo


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