The problem of prevention

Abstract

Many disasters are foreshadowed by insu¢ cient preventive care. In this paper, we argue that there is a true problem of prevention , in that insu¢ cient care is often the result of rational calculations on the part of agents. We identify two factors that lead to dubious e§orts in care. First, when objective risks of a disaster are poorly understood, positive experiences may lead to an underestimation of these risks and a corresponding underinvestment in prevention. Second, redundancies designed for safety may lead agents to reduce their care, resulting in a decrease in safety under certain conditions. We also analyze the use of checklists in accident prevention.