Climate variability and simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks as observed in long-term yield records

dc.creatorAnderson, W.
dc.creatorBaethgen, W.
dc.creatorCapitanio, F.
dc.creatorCiais, P.
dc.creatorCook, B.I.
dc.creatorCunha, C.G.R.
dc.creatorGoddard, L.
dc.creatorSchauberger, B.
dc.creatorSonder, K.
dc.creatorPodesta, G.
dc.creatorVan der Velde, M.
dc.creatorLiangzhi You
dc.date2023-02-10T19:07:23Z
dc.date2023-02-10T19:07:23Z
dc.date2023
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-17T20:10:21Z
dc.date.available2023-07-17T20:10:21Z
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10883/22507
dc.identifier10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109321
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/7514250
dc.descriptionThat climate variability and change can potentially force multiple simultaneous breadbasket crop yield shocks has been established. But research quantifying the mechanisms behind such simultaneous shocks has been constrained by short records of crop yields. Here we compile a dataset of subnational crop yields in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to study the frequency and trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks and how large-scale climate anomalies on interannual timescales have affected multiple breadbasket yield shocks over the last century. We find that major simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks have occurred in at least three, four, or five of nine breadbaskets 10.3%, 2.3% and 1.1% of the time for maize and 18.4%, 4.6% and 2.3% of the time for wheat. Furthermore, we find that multiple breadbasket yield shocks decreased in frequency even as those breadbaskets experience increasingly frequent climate-related shocks. For both maize and wheat breadbaskets, there were fewer simultaneous yield shocks during the 1975–2017 time period as compared to 1931–1975. Finally, we find that interannual modes of climate variability - such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have all affected the relative probability of simultaneous yield shocks in pairs of breadbaskets by up to 20–40% in both maize and wheat breadbaskets. While past literature has focused on the effects of ENSO, we find that at the global scale the NAO affects the overall number of wheat yield shocks most strongly despite only affecting northern hemisphere breadbaskets.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relationhttps://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/food-twentieth-century-crop-statistics-1900-2017
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dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.source331
dc.source0168-1923
dc.sourceAgricultural and Forest Meteorology
dc.source109321
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
dc.subjectMultiple Breadbasket Failures
dc.subjectMaize and Wheat Yield
dc.subjectEl Niño Southern Oscillation
dc.subjectNorth Atlantic Oscillation
dc.subjectIndian Ocean Dipole
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIABILITY
dc.subjectMAIZE
dc.subjectWHEAT
dc.subjectYIELDS
dc.subjectEL NINO
dc.subjectSustainable Agrifood Systems
dc.titleClimate variability and simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks as observed in long-term yield records
dc.typeArticle
dc.typePublished Version
dc.coverageNorth Atlantic
dc.coverageIndian Ocean
dc.coverageAmsterdam (Netherlands)


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