Developing timely and actionable drought forecasts for the Limpopo River Basin

dc.creatorMontes, C.
dc.date2023-01-24T01:30:15Z
dc.date2023-01-24T01:30:15Z
dc.date2022
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-17T20:10:15Z
dc.date.available2023-07-17T20:10:15Z
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10883/22457
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/7514202
dc.descriptionSouthern Africa is highly drought-prone, and its agricultural and hydrological systems are vulnerable. Climate forecasts provide tools for decision-making and adaptation to climate extreme events. This report presents the preliminary results regarding the development of seasonal drought forecasts for the Limpopo River basin. Using multiple climate-relevant datasets, a diagnosis of the climate of the Limpopo basin was carried out, and the relevance of using the SPEI drought index for characterizing droughts was also assessed. The results showed strong climatic seasonality, in addition to the strong relationship between the seasonal drought conditions captured by SPEI. Outputs from four climate models, gridded rainfall observations, and a machine-learning method were used to generate a real-time experimental probabilistic forecast of rainfall in the Limpopo basin. Finally, the next steps are presented to meet the objectives of the Initiative, strengthening the capacities of the Limpopo Watercourse Commission.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherCIMMYT
dc.publisherLIMCOM
dc.relationPoverty reduction, livelihoods & jobs
dc.relationDigital Innovation
dc.relationSystems Transformation
dc.relationCGIAR Trust Fund
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/128080
dc.rightsCIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purpose
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
dc.subjectDROUGHT
dc.subjectFORECASTING
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
dc.subjectMACHINE LEARNING
dc.subjectSustainable Agrifood Systems
dc.titleDeveloping timely and actionable drought forecasts for the Limpopo River Basin
dc.typeReport
dc.typePublished Version
dc.coverageLimpopo River
dc.coverageMexico


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