Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change

dc.creatorMinoli, S.
dc.creatorJägermeyr, J.
dc.creatorAsseng, S.
dc.creatorUrfels, A.
dc.creatorMuller, C.
dc.date2023-01-23T21:06:40Z
dc.date2023-01-23T21:06:40Z
dc.date2022
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-17T20:10:13Z
dc.date.available2023-07-17T20:10:13Z
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10883/22443
dc.identifier10.1038/s41467-022-34411-5
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/7514188
dc.descriptionAdaptive management of crop growing periods by adjusting sowing dates and cultivars is one of the central aspects of crop production systems, tightly connected to local climate. However, it is so far underrepresented in crop-model based assessments of yields under climate change. In this study, we integrate models of farmers’ decision making with biophysical crop modeling at the global scale to simulate crop calendars adaptation and its effect on crop yields of maize, rice, sorghum, soybean and wheat. We simulate crop growing periods and yields (1986-2099) under counterfactual management scenarios assuming no adaptation, timely adaptation or delayed adaptation of sowing dates and cultivars. We then compare the counterfactual growing periods and corresponding yields at the end of the century (2080-2099). We find that (i) with adaptation, temperature-driven sowing dates (typical at latitudes >30°N-S) will have larger shifts than precipitation-driven sowing dates (at latitudes <30°N-S); (ii) later-maturing cultivars will be needed, particularly at higher latitudes; (iii) timely adaptation of growing periods would increase actual crop yields by ~12%, reducing climate change negative impacts and enhancing the positive CO2 fertilization effect. Despite remaining uncertainties, crop growing periods adaptation require consideration in climate change impact assessments.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherNature Publishing Group
dc.relationNutrition, health & food security
dc.relationTransforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia
dc.relationResilient Agrifood Systems
dc.relationFederal Ministry of Education and Research
dc.relationInternational Wheat Yield Partnership
dc.relationUnited States Agency for International Development
dc.relationBill & Melinda Gates Foundation
dc.relationCGIAR Trust Fund
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/127973
dc.rightsCIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purpose
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.source13
dc.source2041-1723
dc.sourceNature Communications
dc.source7079
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
dc.subjectAdaptive Management
dc.subjectSowing Dates Adjustment
dc.subjectCrop Growing Periods
dc.subjectAGROECOLOGY
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectMODELLING
dc.subjectPLANT BREEDING
dc.subjectSustainable Agrifood Systems
dc.titleGlobal crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change
dc.typeArticle
dc.typePublished Version
dc.coverageLondon (United Kingdom)


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