Ciclos políticos presupuestales en América Latina, 1982-2014

dc.creatorMejía-Reyes, Pablo
dc.creatorReyes-Hernández, Marlen Rocío
dc.creatorRiguzzi, Paolo
dc.date.accessioned2020-01-01 00:00:00
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-23T16:15:44Z
dc.date.available2020-01-01 00:00:00
dc.date.available2023-01-23T16:15:44Z
dc.date.created2020-01-01 00:00:00
dc.date.created2023-01-23T16:15:44Z
dc.date.issued2020-01-01
dc.identifier10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v12.n1.2020.3061
dc.identifier2011-7663
dc.identifier2248-6046
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10983/29422
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v12.n1.2020.3061
dc.description.abstractEl objetivo de este artículo es detectar la presencia de ciclos políticos presupuestales (CPP) en torno a las elecciones presidenciales de cuatro grandes países latinoamericanos (Argentina, Chile, Colombia y México) durante el periodo 1982-2014, en el contexto de regímenes democráticos. Para ello, se estiman modelos autorregresivos extendidos para gasto público total y sus componentes principales, considerando el efecto de las fluctuaciones cíclicas. Entre los hallazgos más importantes está la evidencia débil de CPP en los casos de Argentina y Chile, mientras que en los casos de México y Colombia se encontraron ajustes postelectorales en partidas presupuestarias sensibles a la manipulación política, como subsidios y obras públicas, junto con aumentos preelectorales en el gasto total en el primero, y en bienes y servicios en el segundo.
dc.description.abstractThis paper aims to detect the presence of political budget cycles (PBuCs) around presidential elections in four large Latin American countries (Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico) over the 1982-2014 period, in the framework of democratic regimes. Extended autoregressive models are estimated for total public expenditure and their chief components, considering the effect of economic fluctuations. Among the most important findings, weak evidence of PBuCs was found in the case of Argentina and Chile, while in the case of Mexico and Colombia, post-electoral adjustments in budget items sensitive to political manipulation were found, such as subsidies and public works, along with pre-electoral increases in total expenditure in the former one, and in goods and services in the latter.
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidad Católica de Colombia
dc.relationhttps://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/3061/3421
dc.relationhttps://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/3061/3516
dc.relationNúm. 1 , Año 2020
dc.relation269
dc.relation1
dc.relation235
dc.relation12
dc.relationRevista Finanzas y Política Económica
dc.relationAboal, D., Lorenzo, F., & Oddone G. (2001). The Political Economy of Budget Deficits in Uruguay. LACEA: Annual Conference, Montevideo.
dc.relationAlesina, A. (1987). Macroeconomic policy in a two-party system as a repeated game. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102(3), 651-678.
dc.relationAlesina, A. (1989). Politics and Business Cycles in Industrial Democracies. Economic Policy, 4(8), 57-98.
dc.relationAlesina, A., & Sachs, J. (1988). Political parties and the business cycle in the United States, 1948-1984. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 20(1), 63-82.
dc.relationBarberia, L.G., & Avelino, G. (2011). Do Political Budget Cycles Differ in Latin American Democracies? Economía, 11(2), 101-134.
dc.relationBorsani, H. (2003). Elecciones, gobiernos mayoritarios y resultados macroeconómicos en América Latina (1979-1998). Desarrollo Económico, 43(171), 389-412.
dc.relationBotero, F., Hoskin, G. W., & Pachón, M. (2010). Sobre forma y sustancia: una evaluación de la democracia electoral en Colombia. Revista de Ciencia Política, 30(1), 41-64.
dc.relationBrender, A., & Drazen, A. (2003). Where does the political budget cycle really come from? CEPR Discussion Paper no. 4049.
dc.relationBrender, A., & Drazen, A. (2005). Political Budget Cycles in New Versus Established Democracies. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(7), 1271-1295.
dc.relationCamou, A. (1995). Democracia y reforma económica en Argentina (1983-1995): ¿doce años no es nada? América Latina Hoy, 11(12), 97-104.
dc.relationCanes-Wrone, B., & Ponce de León, C. (2015). Electoral Cycles and Democratic Development. Submitted.
dc.relationCentro Sismológico Nacional (CSN). (2016). Sismos Importantes y/o Destructivos (1570 a la fecha). www.sismologia.cl (consulted on January 21, 2016).
dc.relationCEPAL (2015). Estadísticas e Indicadores Económicos. http://www.cepal.org (consulted on August 25, 2015).
dc.relationCuadra, G. (2008). Hechos estilizados del ciclo económico en México. Banco de México, Documento de investigación, núm. 2008-14, 1-54.
dc.relationCukierman, A., & Meltzer, A. H. (1986). A positive theory of discretionary policy, the cost of a democratic government, and the benefits of a constitution. Economic Inquiry, 24(3), 367-388.
dc.relationDrazen, A., & Eslava, M. (2003). The political business cycle in Colombia on the National and Regional level. Archivos de Economía. Departamento Nacional de Planeación. Dirección de Estudios Económicos. Núm. 215.
dc.relationDrazen, A. (2001). The Political Business Cycle after 25 Years. In Bernanke, B. S., & Rogoff, K. (Eds.). NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000 (pp. 75-138), Cambridge: The MIT Press.
dc.relationDubois, E. (2016). Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus. Public Choice, 166(1-2), 235-259.
dc.relationFlores, D. (2007). Elecciones y ciclos económicos en México. El Trimestre Económico, 74(2), 467-474.
dc.relationFranzese, R. J., & Jusko, K. L. (2008). Political-Economic Cycles. In Wittman, D. A., & Weingast, B. R. (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy (pp. 546-565), Oxford: Oxford University Press.
dc.relationGavin, M., & Perotti, R. (1997). Fiscal Policy in Latin America. In Bernanke, B., & Rotemberg, J. (Eds.). NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997 (pp. 11-72), Cambridge: MIT Press.
dc.relationGonzález, M. A. (2002). Do Changes in Democracy Affect the Political Budget Cycle? Evidence from Mexico. Review of Development Economics, 6(2), 204-224.
dc.relationGrier, K. G. (1987). Presidential Elections and Federal Reserve Policy: An empirical test. Southern Economic Journal, 54(2), 475-486.
dc.relationHermelin, M. (2005). Desastres de origen natural en Colombia 1979-2004, Medellin: EAFIT.
dc.relationHibbs, D. A. Jr. (1977). Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy. American Political Science Review, 71(4), 1467-1487.
dc.relationHibbs, D. A. (2006). Voting and the Macroeconomy. In Wittman, D. A., & Weingast, B. R. (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy (pp. 565-586), Oxford: Oxford University Press.
dc.relationHodrick, R. J., & Prescott, E. C. (1997). Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 1-16.
dc.relationHuntington, S. P. (1993). The Third Wave. Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman, Oklahoma: University of Oklahoma Press.
dc.relationInstituto Nacional Electoral. (2016). Estadísticas y Resultados Electorales. Retrieved from http://www.ine.mx/archivos3/portal/historico/contenido/Historico_de_Resultados_Electorales/ (consulted on January 20th, 2016).
dc.relationJarque, C. M., & Bera, A. K. (1987). A Test for Normality of Observations and Regression Residuals. International Statistical Review, 55, 163-172.
dc.relationJohnston, J., & DiNardo, J. (1997). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw Hill, 4th ed.
dc.relationKahneman, D. (2003). Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavorial Economics. American Economic Review, 93(5), 1449-1475.
dc.relationKlomp, J., & de Haan, J. (2013). Do political budget cycles really exist? Applied Economics, 45(3), 329-341.
dc.relationKraemer, M. (1997). Electoral Budget Cycles in Latin America and the Caribbean: Incidence, Causes, and Political Futility. Working Paper no. 354. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, Office of the Chief Economist.
dc.relationLavell, A. (2004). La Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina. LA RED: Antecedentes, Formación y Contribución al Desarrollo de los Conceptos, Estudios y la Práctica en el Tema de los Riesgos y Desastres en América Latina: 1980-2004. San José de Costa Rica: FLACSO-LA RED. http://www.desenredando.org/public/varios/2004/LARED-AFCDCEPTRDAM/LARED/ AFCDCEPTRDAM_nov-26-2004.pdf (consulted on January 25th, 2016) .
dc.relationLucas, R. E. Jr. (1972). Expectations and the neutrality of money. Journal of Economic Theory, 4(2), 103-124.
dc.relationLucas, R. E. Jr. (1977). Understanding Business Cycles. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 5(1), 7-29.
dc.relationMcCallum, B. (1978). The political business cycle: an empirical test. Southern Economic Journal, 44(3), 504-515.
dc.relationMagaloni, B. (2000). Institutions, Political Opportunism, and Macroeconomic Cycles: Mexico, 1970-1998. Working Paper. Stanford University.
dc.relationMainwaring, S., & Pérez Liñán, A. (2006). Latin American Democratization Since 1978: Democratic Transitions, Breakdowns and Erosions. In Hagopian, F., & Mainwaring. S. (Eds.). The Third Wave of Democratization in Latin America. Advances and Setbacks (pp. 14-60), Cambridge; Cambridge University Press.
dc.relationMarshall, M. G, Gurr, T. R., & Jaggers, K. (2014). Polity IV Project: Dataset Users’ Manual. Center for Systemic Peace.
dc.relationMejía, P. (2003). Regularidades empíricas en los ciclos económicos de México: producción, inversión, inflación y balanza comercial. Economía mexicana, XII(2), 231-269.
dc.relationMoreno, H., & Gardeweg, M. C. (1989). La erupción reciente en el Complejo Volcánico Lonquimay (diciembre 1988), Andes del Sur. Revista Geológica de Chile, 16(11), 93-117.
dc.relationNewey, W. K., & West, K. D. (1987). A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix. Econometrica, 55(3), 703-708.
dc.relationNieto-Parra, S., & Santiso, J. (2012). Revisiting Political Budget Cycles in Latin America. In Santiso, J., & Dayton-Johnson, J. (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Latin American Political Economy. New York: Oxford University Press.
dc.relationNordhaus, W. D. (1975). The political business cycle. Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169-190.
dc.relationNorth, D. C. (2005). Understanding the Process of Economic Change. Princeton University Press.
dc.relationNorth, D. C., Wallis, J. J., & Weingast, B. R. (2009). Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History. New York: Cambridge University Press.
dc.relationOgura, L. M. (2000). Political Business Cycles in the Brazilian Economy. Monography. University of Brasilia.
dc.relationOlters, J. P. (2012). Political Business Cycle. In Besomi, D. (Ed.). Crises and Cycles in Economic Dictionaries and Encyclopedias (pp. 463-484), New York, NY: Routledge.
dc.relationOsborn, D. R., Pérez, P. J., & Sensier, M. (2005). Business Cycle Linkages for the G7 Countries: Does the US Lead the World? Economics Discussion Paper Series no. 0527. The University of Manchester.
dc.relationPayne, M., Zovatto, D., Carrillo, F., & Allamand, F. (2006). La política importa. Democracia y desarrollo en América Latina. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.
dc.relationPepinsky, T. (2007). Autocracy, Elections, and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Malaysia. Studies in Comparative International Development, 42(1), 136-163.
dc.relationPersson, T., & Tabellini, G. E. (1990). Macroeconomic Policy Credibility and Politics. Malaysia: Harwood Academic Publishers.
dc.relationPersson, T., & Tabellini, G. E. (2000). Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
dc.relationRemmer, K. L. (1993). The Political Economy of Elections in Latin America, 1980-1991. The American Political Science Review, 87(2), 393-407.
dc.relationRamsey, J. B. (1969). Tests for Specification Error in Classical Linear Least Squares Analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 31, 350-371.
dc.relationReyes, M. R., & Mejía, P. (2012). Co-movimiento de los componentes del gasto público y el ciclo económico en México, 1980-2007. Explanans, 1(2), 53-88.
dc.relationReyes, M. R., Mejía, P., & Riguzzi, P. (2013). Ciclo político presupuestal y gobiernos con y sin mayoría en México, 1994 y 2006. Economía, Sociedad y Territorio, XIII(41), 79-119.
dc.relationReyes, M. R., & Mejía, P. (2016). Ciclo político presupuestal en México, 1980-2014: un enfoque econométrico. Gestión y Política Pública, XXV(2), 415-445.
dc.relationRogoff, K. (1990). Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles. American Economic Review, 80(1), 21-36.
dc.relationRogoff, K., & Sibert, A. (1988). Elections and Macroecomic Policy Cycles. The Review of Economic Studies, 55(1), 1-16.
dc.relationRomer, D. (2006). Macroeconomía avanzada. Madrid: McGraw Hill.
dc.relationSantiso, C. (2007). Parliaments and budgeting: Understanding the politics of Budget. In Bodemer, K., & Carrillo, F. (Eds.). Gobernabilidad y reforma política en América Latina y Europa (pp. 135-186), La Paz, Bolivia: GIGA, BID, REDGOB–Plural Editores.
dc.relationSaporiti, A., & Streb, J. M. (2008). Separation of Powers and Political Budget Cycles. Public Choice, 137(1-2), 329-345.
dc.relationSherman, H. J. (1991). The Business Cycle: Growth and Crisis under Capitalism. Princeton University Press.
dc.relationSchuknecht, L. (1996). Political Business Cycles and Fiscal Policies in Developing Countries. Kyklos, 49(2), 155-170.
dc.relationShi, M., & Svensson, J. (2000). Conditional Political Business Cycle: Theory and Evidence. mimeo, Institute for International Economic Studies. Stockholm: Stockholm University.
dc.relationShi, M., & Svensson, J. (2002). Conditional political budget cycles. CEPR Discussion Paper no. 3352.
dc.relationShi, M., & Svensson, J. (2003). Political Budget Cycles: A Review of Recent Developments. Nordic Journal of Political Economy, 29(1), 67-76.
dc.relationShi, M., & Svensson, J. (2006). Political Budget Cycles: Do They Differ Across Countries and Why? Journal of Public Economics, 90(8-9), 1367-1389.
dc.relationSmith, P. H. (2012). Democracy in Latin America: Political Change in Comparative Perspective. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
dc.relationStreb, J. M., Lema, D., & Garofalo, P. (2012). Temporal aggregation in political budget cycles. Economía, 13(1), 39-78.
dc.relationTalvi, E., & Végh, C. A. (2005). Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries. Journal of Development Economics, 78(1), 156-190.
dc.relationTaylor, S. L. (2009). Voting Amid Violence: Electoral Democracy in Colombia. Boston: Northeastern University Press.
dc.relationTufte, E. R. (1978). Political Control of the Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
dc.relationVelázquez, R. (2008). La relación entre el Ejecutivo y el Congreso en materia de política exterior durante el sexenio de Vicente Fox: ¿cooperación o conflicto? Política y Gobierno, XV(1), 113-155.
dc.relationWeatherford, S. (1987). The interplay of ideology and advice in economic policymaking: the case of political business cycles. The Journal of Politics, 49(4), 925-952.
dc.relationWhite, H. (1980). A Heteroscedasticity-consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroscedasticity. Econometrica, 48, 817-838.
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rightshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rightshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
dc.sourcehttps://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/3061
dc.subjectPolitical budget cycle
dc.subjectPublic expenditure
dc.subjectLatin america
dc.subjectGasto público
dc.subjectLatinoamérica
dc.subjectCiclo político presupuestal
dc.titleCiclos políticos presupuestales en América Latina, 1982-2014
dc.typeArtículo de revista


Este ítem pertenece a la siguiente institución