Planeamiento estocástico de los sistemas energéticos integrados considerando almacenamientos de energía estacional bajo distintos escenarios de demanda y costos de gas natural

dc.contributorSalazar Isaza, Harold
dc.creatorDelgado Ramos, Sofía
dc.date2023-02-03T19:17:27Z
dc.date2023-02-03T19:17:27Z
dc.date2022
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-05T15:16:55Z
dc.date.available2023-06-05T15:16:55Z
dc.identifierUniversidad Tecnológica de Pereira
dc.identifierRepositorio Institucional Universidad Tecnológica de Pereira
dc.identifierhttps://repositorio.utp.edu.co/home
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/11059/14490
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/6645749
dc.descriptionEn el planeamiento de los sistemas energéticos existen parámetros externos sujetos a variaciones que afectan las decisiones que se deben tomar para su operación, como son los afluentes que alimentan a cada embalse de las centrales hidroeléctricas o los costos de inyección del gas natural al sistema energético, entre otros. El enfoque estocástico permite que la operación se realice de la mejor manera, independientemente de los valores que tomen los parámetros mencionados anteriormente, y es por esto por lo que la evaluación estocástica es una herramienta útil para abordar el planeamiento de los sistemas energéticos. En la actualidad, la recuperación de la demanda de energía eléctrica, producto de la crisis sanitaria y los conflictos bélicos, afectan de manera significativa el planeamiento de la operación de los sistemas energéticos al existir la posibilidad de tener variaciones altas e inesperadas, por lo que resulta relevante analizar distintos escenarios de esta recuperación para que se asegure que el sistema opere de forma eficiente trayendo consigo beneficios económicos y suficiencia energética. En este orden de ideas, se requiere contar con una política óptima que determine la manera en que se debe evaluar el conjunto de escenarios probables y, además, introduzca elementos que beneficien la gestión de la incertidumbre proveniente de diversas fuentes. Por consiguiente, en esta investigación se presentan los almacenamientos de energía estacional y el análisis estocástico, como una solución atractiva para mitigar el efecto de las posibles eventualidades en la demanda y el costo del gas natural.
dc.descriptionIn the planning of energy systems there are external parameters subject to variations that affect the decisions that must be made for their operation, such as the affluents that feed the hydroelectric power station reservoirs and the injection costs of the natural gas to the system, among others. The stochastic approach allows that the operation is carried out in the best way, regardless of the values that the mentioned parameters take, and that is why the stochastic evaluation is a useful tool to address the planning of energy systems. Currently, the recovery of the demand for electrical energy, because of the health crisis, and armed conflicts, have a significant effect on the planning of the operation of energy systems as there is the possibility of having high and unexpected variations, so it is relevant to analyze different scenarios of this recovery so that it is ensured that the system operates efficiently, bringing economic benefits and energy sufficiency. In this order of ideas, it is necessary to have an optimal policy that determines the way in which the set of probable scenarios must be evaluated and, in addition, introduce elements that protect the system against the variations that the demand for electrical energy may have in the medium term during the economic recovery. Therefore, in this research, seasonal energy storage and a stochastic analysis are presented as an attractive solution to mitigate the effect of possible eventualities in electric demand and natural gas prices.
dc.descriptionPregrado
dc.descriptionMagíster en Ingeniería Eléctrica
dc.descriptionContenido Agradecimientos.............................................................................................................................. 5 Resumen.......................................................................................................................................... 6 Índice de Figuras................................................................................................................................. 8 Índice de Tablas .................................................................................................................................. 9 1 Introducción .............................................................................................................................. 10 1.1. Planteamiento y justificación del problema .......................................................................... 10 1.2. Estado del arte ....................................................................................................................... 12 2 Marco conceptual ...................................................................................................................... 19 2.1 Enfoque estocástico............................................................................................................... 19 2.2 Modelo matemático............................................................................................................... 22 2.1 Estrategia de análisis............................................................................................................. 26 3 Resultados................................................................................................................................. 28 3.1 Sistema de prueba.................................................................................................................. 28 3.2 Resultados numéricos............................................................................................................ 32 3.2.1 Sin existencia de UGS............................................................................................... 33 3.2.2 Con existencia de UGS ............................................................................................. 39 4 Conclusiones y Trabajos Futuros.............................................................................................. 53 4.1. Conclusiones......................................................................................................................... 53 4.2. Trabajos Futuros.................................................................................................................... 54 5 Referencias................................................................................................................................ 55
dc.format59 Páginas
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.languagespa
dc.publisherUniversidad Tecnológica de Pereira
dc.publisherFacultad de Ingenierías
dc.publisherPereira
dc.publisherMaestría en Ingeniería Eléctrica
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dc.rightsManifiesto (Manifestamos) en este documento la voluntad de autorizar a la Biblioteca Jorge Roa Martínez de la Universidad Tecnológica de Pereira la publicación en el Repositorio institucional (http://biblioteca.utp.edu.co), la versión electrónica de la OBRA titulada: ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ La Universidad Tecnológica de Pereira, entidad académica sin ánimo de lucro, queda por lo tanto facultada para ejercer plenamente la autorización anteriormente descrita en su actividad ordinaria de investigación, docencia y publicación. La autorización otorgada se ajusta a lo que establece la Ley 23 de 1982. Con todo, en mi (nuestra) condición de autor (es) me (nos) reservo (reservamos) los derechos morales de la OBRA antes citada con arreglo al artículo 30 de
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dc.subject620 - Ingeniería y operaciones afines::629 - Otras ramas de la ingeniería
dc.subjectAnálisis estocastico
dc.subjectAlmacenamiento de gas natural
dc.subjectCombustibles fósiles
dc.subjectSistemas energéticos integrados
dc.subjectOptimización estocástica
dc.subjectAlmacenamientos de energía estacional
dc.titlePlaneamiento estocástico de los sistemas energéticos integrados considerando almacenamientos de energía estacional bajo distintos escenarios de demanda y costos de gas natural
dc.typeTrabajo de grado - Maestría
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dc.typehttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
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