Elaboração de um método para o entendimento da dinâmica da precificação de commodities através do pensamento sistêmico e do planejamento por cenários : uma aplicação no mercado de minérios de ferro

Abstract

In competitive and complex environments, like commodity markets, the ability to plan alternative scenarios and foreseen pricing behavior represents a competitive advantage. Within this context, this research aims to build a method that uses a systemic approach to understand the key factors that impact in commodities pricing, in order to visualize prices in different future scenarios. Action research is chosen as research method, by its characteristics of continuous and collective knowledge constructions. Based on PSPC – Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning – it proposes a method with three steps to be applied in the iron ore market. The first step leads to a collective awareness of the main variables related with pricing. In the second one, this knowledge is transferred to the dynamic system model, which, in the third phase, is used to visualize prices behavior in future scenarios. Along with quantitative evaluation, interviews with the participants give the inputs to accept and improve the proposed method.