Previsão de resultado empresarial baseado em cenários em uma indústria metalúrgica

Abstract

Over the years, accounting ceased to be just a science of records to become a tool of planning and organizational forecast. Its evolution has led to the historical data of the companies became the basis for forecasts and estimates of future results. The corporate strategic planning has become essential to guarantee the continuity of the same, thereby improving the decision making of managers. Given this, the main objective of this study is to predict the results of a metallurgical industry for the years 2015, 2016 and 2017 with the application of a result forecasting tool, in this case, the systematic forecasting scenario-based results developed by Casagrande(2010). This sistematic uses the perception of managers from the selection of contingent variables which have greater influence in the company. One of its main features can be highlighted with the need for a dual application of the tool: the malleability. The calculated results predict different values between the two applications which can be explained by the economic environment that the company was in two rounds of applying the sistematic. It can be concluded from this that the application of this tool, as perceived by managers is of great benefit to the process of planning and forecasting of future results of the company.