Los sesgos cognitivos y su influencia en al toma de decisiones económicas bajo riesgo en los estudiantes de maestría en ciencias económicas de la universidad nacional de Trujillo - 2013

Abstract

This paper contrasts the new behavioral approach to economic decision making under conditions of risk with the traditional approach of economic theory represented in the theory of expected utility. The investigation has been conducted on the basis of the answers given Postgraduate students in Economics from the National University of Trujillo-2013 to "hypothetical election issues" raised. It was developed a questionnaire containing several questions relating to different situations against which decisions must be made. The results conclude that in a lot of opportunities making economic decisions under risk is based on gut feelings and impressions rather than on a rational and logical behavior. In this investigation we showed the presence of three cognitive biases that contradict the Principles and Axioms Rationality of the Theory of Expected Utility. Making economic decisions under risk involves proper handling of probabilities, however, this research concludes that subjective assessments of probabilities as a result of the potential effect and the certainty effect originate an overestimation of low probabilities and underestimating high probabilities respectively; also under effect it leads to different interpretations of the same information. The sum of all these contradictions can be derived that in most cases students take unfavorable economic decisions.