En qué medida contribuye la profundidad financiera en la tasa de crecimiento económico? evidencia empírica para la economía ecuatoriana en el periodo 2000 - 2018

Abstract

This research examines the role of the development of the financial system on Ecuador's economic growth during the period 2000 - 2018. According to the literature, financial markets are a key factor in triggering strong economic growth because they contribute to economic efficiency by channeling financial funds from unproductive to productive uses; however, the causality of this link has not been established. Financial development can lead to economic growth by improving the distribution of savings in the economy; but economic growth can promote the development of the financial system by creating good institutions and the necessary infrastructure. The estimation of a cointegration model is applied to determine the magnitude of the impact that financial development indicators have on the GDP growth rate; finding as a result the noncointegration, that is to say, the non-existence of a significant long-term relationship. In addition, a synthetic indicator of financial deepening has been constructed through the analysis of main components, among the indicators of depth, penetration and financial intermediation, obtaining a summary indicator that behaves in a stable and stationary manner, however, not correlated with the GDP. These results indicate that the growth of the Ecuadorian economy develops independently of the financial system due to imbalances caused by periods of poor regulation followed by periods of high regulation of the system.