| dc.description.abstract | The generation of scenarios for territorial planning through prospective
models of land use represents an opportunity to anticipate, prevent, and
mitigate unsustainable patterns of consumption and production that territorial
development has. This research aims to contribute to the generation of
territorial scenarios through the prospective of rural land. The methodology was
based on the application of strategic prospective and the CA_Markov model,
which is synthesized in a) generation of land cover and land use maps for the
years 2000, 2008, and 2018, a1) analysis of changes in land use between the
different periods, a2) calculation of transition probability areas (Markov Chain);
b) generation of transition suitability maps through identification of change
factors, restrictions, fuzzy membership functions (Fuzzy), analytical hierarchy
process (AHP) models and multi-criteria evaluation (MCE); c) evaluation of the
predictive power of the model through the Kappa index and; d) simulation of
scenarios to the year 2030. The 2000-2018 period results indicate a decrease
in natural coverage and an increase in anthropic zones and agricultural land.
In the scenarios projected for the year 2030, this trend will continue. It is
concluded that the space-time analysis for the construction of territorial
scenarios represents not only an alternative to understanding the territorial
dynamics but also allows to influence it through decision-making based on the
technical, academic, planner, and civil society criteria, whose vision allows for
achieving sustainable development of the Cuenca canton in the future. | |
