Determinación de los factores de mayoración del tráfico promedio diario anual (TPDA) partiendo de datos históricos de zonas representativas de la ciudad de Cuenca

Abstract

The present study focuses on the determination of the factors of adjustment or increase of traffic for the city of Cuenca - Ecuador, according to historical information of vehicle counts of the city. The observational descriptive analysis made for the determination the adjustment factors was based on a five-year historical record (2010 - 2015) of unclassified automatic counts, which were provided by the Municipal Transit and Transportation Unit ( UMT) of the city of Cuenca and corresponding to 126 continuous automatic counting stations (105 in the center and 21 in the peripheries). In this sense factors for each of the years have been determined and later, by means of a statistical analysis, unique adjustment factors have been determined for the city of Cuenca. The validation of the results is shown by comparing the estimation errors obtained according to the AADT estimates made by the two methodologies (proposed and traditional) with respect to the real AADT, this has been done for 13 selected intersections at random of the 126 intersections of the study; where the results indicate that the traditional method provides an additional 50% of the maximum absolute error obtained by the proposed factors and an additional 68% of the mean absolute error, that is, the average AADT estimate improved by more than 50% when using the factors of adjustment proposed in this study, thus improving the methodology and results in the estimation of the AADT.