Propuesta de un modelo matemático para predicción de flujo vehicular en áreas urbanas, caso: zona central del cantón Riobamba

Abstract

The conflict found in the vehicular mobility in Riobamba Canton generated by an inadequate distribution of vehicular circulation schedules and lack of parking areas, led the investigation to develop a proposal for the prediction of vehicular flow in urban areas, case Central zone at Riobamba Canton through the application of a mathematical model, that it started with the preparation of a diagnosis of the Canton with the application of the direct observation technique to perform a count of vehicle capacity for six days at different times taking as reference to the North Av. La Prensa, to the South Juan de Velasco Street, to the East Orozco Street and to the West Villarroel Street. In addition to establishing a representative sample of the population of Riobamba, a survey was applied. It is important to note that in the lifting of vehicle capacity the times of greatest congestion were: from 6:30 to 10:30 in the morning and from 16:00 to 18:30, on the other hand, the results of the application of the survey were tube that the longest time of traffic congestion was from 7:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. and from 12:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m., once these results were obtained, the mathematical model based on least squares was applied with which was able to technically project the vehicular flow determining that there is an upward trend and a strong positive correlation of the variables. Finally, it would be stated that the problem of vehicular saturation is not new, it has been progressive in function of demographic and vehicular growth and that the participation of different sectors such as sectional, private companies, academia, in general the citizen would serve to generate a multidisciplinary project for vehicular decongestion.