Multidecadal changes in the relationship between extreme temperature events in Uruguay and the general atmospheric circulation

Abstract

We analyze changes in the relationship between extreme temperature events and the large scale atmospheric circulation before and after the 1976 climate shift. To do so we first constructed a set of two temperature indices that describe the occurrence of warm nights (TN90) and cold nights (TN10) based on a long daily observed minimum temperature database that spans the period 1946-2005, and then divided the period into two subperiods of 30 years each (1946-1975 and 1976-2005). We focus on summer (TN10) and winter (TN90) seasons. During austral summer before 1976 the interannual variability of cold nights was characterized by a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) with a cyclonic anomaly centered off Uruguay that favoured the entrance of cold air from the south. After 1976 cold nights are associated not with the SAM, but with an isolated vortex at upper levels over South Eastern South America. During austral winter before 1976, the El Niño phenomenon dominated the interannual variability of warm nights through an increase in the northerly warm flow into Uruguay. However, after 1976 the El Niño connection weakened and the variability of warm nights is dominated by a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly located in the South Atlantic and a low pressure center over South America. This configuration also strengthens the northward flow of warm air into Uruguay. Our results suggest that changes in El Niño evolution after 1976 may have played a role in altering the relationship between temperature extreme events in Uruguay and the atmospheric circulation.