dc.creatorMüller, Omar Vicente
dc.creatorLovino, Miguel Angel
dc.creatorBerbery, Ernesto H.
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-30T19:30:59Z
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-15T13:58:56Z
dc.date.available2019-01-30T19:30:59Z
dc.date.available2022-10-15T13:58:56Z
dc.date.created2019-01-30T19:30:59Z
dc.date.issued2016-06
dc.identifierMüller, Omar Vicente; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Berbery, Ernesto H.; Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America; American Meteorological Society; Weather and Forecasting; 31; 3; 6-2016; 1001-1017
dc.identifier0882-8156
dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/69063
dc.identifierCONICET Digital
dc.identifierCONICET
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/4394207
dc.description.abstractWeather forecasting and monitoring systems based on regional models are becoming increasingly relevant for decision support in agriculture and water management. This work evaluates the predictive and monitoring capabilities of a system based on WRF Model simulations at 15-km grid spacing over the La Plata basin (LPB) in southern South America, where agriculture and water resources are essential. The model's skill up to a lead time of 7 days is evaluated with daily precipitation and 2-m temperature in situ observations for the 2-yr period from 1 August 2012 to 31 July 2014. Results show high prediction performance with 7-day lead time throughout the domain and particularly over LPB, where about 70% of rain and no-rain days are correctly predicted. Also, the probability of detection of rain days is above 80% in humid regions. Temperature observations and forecasts are highly correlated (r > 0.80) while mean absolute errors, even at the maximum lead time, remain below 2.7°C for minimum and mean temperatures and below 3.7°C for maximum temperatures. The usefulness of WRF products for hydroclimate monitoring was tested for an unprecedented drought in southern Brazil and for a slightly above normal precipitation season in northeastern Argentina. In both cases the model products reproduce the observed precipitation conditions with consistent impacts on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff. This evaluation validates the model's usefulness for forecasting weather up to 1 week in advance and for monitoring climate conditions in real time. The scores suggest that the forecast lead time can be extended into a second week, while bias correction methods can reduce some of the systematic errors.
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0130.1
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0130.1
dc.rightshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subjectAPPLICATIONS
dc.subjectCOMMUNICATIONS/DECISION MAKING
dc.subjectFORECAST VERIFICATION/SKILL
dc.subjectFORECASTING
dc.subjectGEOGRAPHIC LOCATION/ENTITY
dc.subjectMODELS AND MODELING
dc.subjectREGIONAL MODELS
dc.subjectSOUTH AMERICA
dc.titleEvaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.typeinfo:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion


Este ítem pertenece a la siguiente institución