dc.creator | Petri de Odriozola, Elisa | |
dc.creator | Quintana, Ana María | |
dc.creator | González, Victor | |
dc.creator | Pasetto, Roque Antonio | |
dc.creator | Utgés, María Eugenia | |
dc.creator | Bruzzone, Octavio Augusto | |
dc.creator | Arnaiz, Maria Rosa | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-05-02T16:22:03Z | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-10-15T03:37:26Z | |
dc.date.available | 2019-05-02T16:22:03Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-10-15T03:37:26Z | |
dc.date.created | 2019-05-02T16:22:03Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2017-04 | |
dc.identifier | Petri de Odriozola, Elisa; Quintana, Ana María; González, Victor; Pasetto, Roque Antonio; Utgés, María Eugenia; et al.; Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination; Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; 112; 6; 4-2017; 419-427 | |
dc.identifier | 0074-0276 | |
dc.identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/11336/75405 | |
dc.identifier | 1678-8060 | |
dc.identifier | CONICET Digital | |
dc.identifier | CONICET | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/4340825 | |
dc.description.abstract | BACKGROUND: Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking. OBJECTIVES We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020. METHODS: Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS: We found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases). MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Corrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts. | |
dc.language | eng | |
dc.publisher | Instituto Oswaldo Cruz | |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0074-02760160490 | |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://ref.scielo.org/cr6vrn | |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://memorias.ioc.fiocruz.br/article/6273/0490_towards-leprosy-elimination-by-2020-forecasts-of-epidemiological-indicators-of-leprosy-in-corrientes-a-province-of-northeastern-argentina-that-is-a-pioneer-in-leprosy-elimination | |
dc.rights | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ | |
dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | |
dc.subject | Epidemiology | |
dc.subject | Forecast | |
dc.subject | Infectious Disease | |
dc.subject | Leprosy | |
dc.subject | Mycobacterium Leprae | |
dc.title | Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination | |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | |
dc.type | info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo | |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | |