dc.creatorPetri de Odriozola, Elisa
dc.creatorQuintana, Ana María
dc.creatorGonzález, Victor
dc.creatorPasetto, Roque Antonio
dc.creatorUtgés, María Eugenia
dc.creatorBruzzone, Octavio Augusto
dc.creatorArnaiz, Maria Rosa
dc.date.accessioned2019-05-02T16:22:03Z
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-15T03:37:26Z
dc.date.available2019-05-02T16:22:03Z
dc.date.available2022-10-15T03:37:26Z
dc.date.created2019-05-02T16:22:03Z
dc.date.issued2017-04
dc.identifierPetri de Odriozola, Elisa; Quintana, Ana María; González, Victor; Pasetto, Roque Antonio; Utgés, María Eugenia; et al.; Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination; Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; 112; 6; 4-2017; 419-427
dc.identifier0074-0276
dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/75405
dc.identifier1678-8060
dc.identifierCONICET Digital
dc.identifierCONICET
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/4340825
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking. OBJECTIVES We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020. METHODS: Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS: We found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases). MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Corrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts.
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherInstituto Oswaldo Cruz
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0074-02760160490
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://ref.scielo.org/cr6vrn
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://memorias.ioc.fiocruz.br/article/6273/0490_towards-leprosy-elimination-by-2020-forecasts-of-epidemiological-indicators-of-leprosy-in-corrientes-a-province-of-northeastern-argentina-that-is-a-pioneer-in-leprosy-elimination
dc.rightshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subjectEpidemiology
dc.subjectForecast
dc.subjectInfectious Disease
dc.subjectLeprosy
dc.subjectMycobacterium Leprae
dc.titleTowards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.typeinfo:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion


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