Indicadores macroeconômicos: repercussão na promoção imobiliária na cidade de Natal/RN

Abstract

Civil construction and real estate development have taken an important role in Brazil's socioeconomic development in recent decades, in addition to having considerable relevance for the national macroeconomics. That said, the present work aims to establish possible correlations between the production of real estate development and the variation of some macroeconomic indicators. In order to do that, the method adopted for the elaboration of this study is close to the case study and consists of the analysis of the annual production of built-up area between 2007 and 2017 in the city of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, and its correlations with the Unemployment Rate, the National Construction Cost Index (INCC), the Basic Economy Interest Rate (SELIC) and the Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI). The results show that the INCC and ICEI indicators followed a behavior directly proportional to the volume of built-up area, while the Unemployment Rate presents an inversely proportional relationship, when correlated with real estate production. In the case of the SELIC Rate, it was not possible to identify an immediate correlation with real estate production. The results obtained can help to understand the fluctuations in the real estate market and contribute to a greater predictability of crises in the sector. In future studies, this relationship can cover a longer time span, use municipal and state indicators, identify correlations with changes in urban legislation or carry out comparative studies between cities of the same size.