masterThesis
Extremos de precipitação e vazão associados às características naturais e antrópicas das regiões hidrográficas do São Francisco e do Paraná
Fecha
2018-06-11Registro en:
OLIVEIRA, Danilo Henrique Morais Castro. Extremos de precipitação e vazão associados às características naturais e antrópicas das regiões hidrográficas do São Francisco e do Paraná. 2018. 102f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Ciências Climáticas) - Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2018.
Autor
Oliveira, Danilo Henrique Morais Castro
Resumen
The occurrence of natural disasters due to extreme extremes of reasoning and flow is an
increasingly common reality in the world. In most cases, the lack of prevention and mitigation
plans associated with lack of management by public agencies maximizes damages and losses.
In Brazil, hydrographic regions determine water management throughout the territory.
However, it is worth emphasizing that the methodologies and solutions created to face such
stresses are not necessarily the same for any region, given that each of them presents different
characteristics in the economy, social, demographic and water management. In this context, the
research aims to estimate the recurrence of rainfall, as well as to search the existing relationship
with the physical, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics in the hydrographic regions
of São Francisco and Paraná. For that, three data sets were used: meteorological, hydrological
and demographic data with time series between 1988 and 2017. Rainfall data were obtained
from the National Institute of Meteorology and National Water Agency. The streamflow data
came from the National Water Agency. In addition, information on demography was obtained
from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. In the methodology, the descriptive
statistics of the precipitation and flow data were used, together with the cluster analysis capable
of identifying homogeneous sub regions of rainfall and stream flow in each hydrographic
region. The generation of these homogeneous sub-regions was tested using the Silhouette
Index. Subsequently, the subregions were inserted in the Extreme Values Theory to generate
the estimation of the return periods of rainfall. The analysis of information about the physical,
socioeconomic and demographic characteristics allowed the analysis of the use and occupation
of the soil of areas susceptible to occurrence the occurrence of phenomena of this size. The
results indicated the formation of four homogeneous sub-regions of rainfall in the two
hydrographic regions studied. The scenarios for the recurrence of events of rainfall and
streamflow show the high degree of severity by which certain subregions can be submitted, and
the use and occupation of the soil of these hydrographic regions has been changed abruptly in
recent years. The urban growth of most cities and the change of natural areas for the practice of
extensive agricultural and livestock farming can aggravate the numerous damages due to the
scenarios for homogeneous sub-regions inserted in the two hydrographic regions.