doctoralThesis
Indicador epidemiológico de vulnerabilidade a extremos climáticos para região Amazônica e Nordeste brasileiro
Fecha
2018-09-10Registro en:
SILVA, Pollyanne Evangelista da. Indicador epidemiológico de vulnerabilidade a extremos climáticos para região Amazônica e Nordeste brasileiro. 2018. 137f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências Climáticas) - Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2018.
Autor
Silva, Pollyanne Evangelista da
Resumen
In the Amazonian region and the Brazilian Northeast, extreme climatic events such as torrential rains
and severe droughts are exacerbated against a situation of poverty resulting in an increase the incidence
of endemic diseases, water supply problems, and agricultural losses, often leading to greater
vulnerability. Thus, the main objective of this study is to construct and analyze an epidemiological
vulnerability index associated with extreme climatic indexes for the Brazilian Amazon and the
Northeast region and thein mesoregions; area according to the risk characteristics to the climatic trend.
For that, different datasets used: meteorological data from Xavier et al. (2015) from a project of the
University of Texas and Federal University of Espírito Santo corresponding to the period from 1980 to
2013; health data provided by the Ministry of Health on websites of the System of Information on
Mortality (SIM), SUS Hospital Information System (SIH / SUS) of DATASUS and demographic data
from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Development Program of the
United Nations (UNDP). The meteorological data were applied to the software RClimdex, which 21
indices were selected, 10 being related to precipitation and 11 to the temperature according to the
meteorological and climatic conditions of each region of this study. For the creation of the
epidemiological indicator of vulnerability to climatic extreme, the cumulative normal distribution was
used to assign scores varying from 0 to 1 for the calculation of vulnerability components: risk,
susceptibility and adaptive capacity. For the analysis, understanding and identification of the
susceptible areas to morbimortalities, the quartiles were used. The results showed that the indexes TXx,
TNx, TX10p, TX90p, SDII, R20mm, CDD, R95p and PRECPTOT presented the highest trends of
climatic changes for Amazonia and Brazilian Northeast, with emphasis on the Sergipe backwoods
mesoregion. Although, it has observed high epidemiological vulnerability associated with climatic
extreme for the whole region of study, with emphasis on mesoregions climáticos foram as mesorregiões
Centro Maranhense, Norte Piauiense, Sudoeste Paraense and Sul de Roraima which revealed very high
vulnerability, explained by the high values of adaptive incapacity and high susceptibility. These
mesoregions also had high rates of morbidity due to infectious and parasitic diseases, and the
respiratory system. This study made it possible to identify the mesoregions of Amazonia and Brazilian
Northeast more vulnerable to the epidemiological aspect in the occurrence of extreme events.