Previsão sazonal da precipitação para o Nordeste do Brasil: um contraste entre as metodologias de Box-Jenkins e Box-Tiao

Abstract

The objective this work is realize a comparative study with adjustment of previsions models by Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) and Box-Tiao (ARIMAX) methods for monthly accumulated precipitation in six cities of Brazilian northeast, choosing the cities according with Köppen climatic classification. We've exogenes variables: sea surface temperature of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean.In all precipitations accumulated series were observerd the presence of sazonal component, besides that, due to assumption of the constante variance and data normality isn't reached, was applied in original serie the Box Cox transformation.By the measures of quality of the models adjustments by ARIMA and ARIMAX method, we've the ARIMAX model evidencied like the better adjustment to data, showing lower values to AIC information criteria, mean error and mean square error.