Estudo sobre a influência dos ciclos solares nas condições atmosféricas na região de jurisdição da FIR Curitiba (FIR - SBCW)

Abstract

Although there were SSN records dating to years before Christ, the systematic counting of SSN were recorded after the 17th Century, only. There is no doubt that the solar cycle nature is due to morphological variation in the Sun Magnetic Field Structure. An ensemble of physics processes inside the Sun makes that magnetic field lines undergo though systematic variation along 11 years. This solar cycle interfere, in many ways, the modern life. The increase in the Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejection number may compromise both the satellite/spacecraft lifespan and astronauts in the space and flight crew who travel through the poles health. The increase generated in Solar emission in Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) and X-Ray cause thermodynamic variation in the upper atmosphere, which, in their turn, might shorten the orbital lifetime of low orbit satellite. Works e.g Svensmark and Friis-Christensen (1997) proved that such solar variations also influence the thermodynamics lower atmosphere conditions. According to these authors, greater Galactic Cosmic Rays (CGR) penetration during solar minimums causes an increase in the aerosols synthesis, favoring an increase in the cloud cover. Beside that, works e.g Eddy (1976) showed that the period known Maunder Minimum, the Earth experienced an anomalous cooling. That said, this work aimed to investigate correlations between solar activities and atmospheric conditions observed at Campo Grande, Curitiba, Porto Alegre and Rio de Janeiro cities, during the solar cycles 19, 20, 21, 22 and 23. These cities are distributed inside the Flight Information Region Curitiba (SBCW-FIR), where a large amount of aircraft crosses every day. Beside that, this region is often affected by meteorological conditions that may interfere in the flight safety, such as icing, thunderstorms and fogs. In order to comply this objective, initially, Wavelet techniques were used to investigate the correlation between CGR flux observed at Hermanus and Potchefstroom stations and the solar activity indexes SSN and F10.7 Solar Emission. These stations are located in South Africa, and therefore, inside the latitudinal range where the SBCW-FIR is located in. In addition, meteorological data collected from those cited cities where reconstructed for the scales of 64, 128 and 256 months. Finally, the coherence level between these time series and SSN and F10.7 time series was evaluated. Agreeing with other work (e.g Belov (2000)), it was observed coherence level close to 1 between CGR and SSN/F10.7 time series, for the periodicity close to 11 years, at a phase angle close to 180o . With the exception of 128 scale period for the mean surface temperature in Porto Alegre, all time series regarding to atmospheric conditions showed periodicity of 64, 128 and 256 months. Regarding to the coherence level, it was observed high levels for the seasonality close to 64, 128, 256 and 512 months. In other words, there are correlations between the solar cycles and the atmospheric conditions inside this region.