bachelorThesis
Um estudo exploratório de variáveis macroeconômicas do investimento na construção civil imobiliária no Brasil, 2002-2016
Fecha
2018Registro en:
ARAUJO, Matheus Taveira de Brito. Um estudo exploratório de variáveis macroeconômicas do
investimento na construção civil imobiliária no Brasil, 2002-2016. 2018. 51f. Trabalho de
Conclusão de Curso (Graduação em Engenharia Civil) - Centro de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2018.
Autor
Araujo, Matheus Taveira de Brito
Resumen
Civil construction is Investment in the macroeconomic perspective and one of the most significant in Gross Fixed Capital Formation. On the other hand, real estate construction is the market-based construction sector, and, Brazil started to live, from 2004/2005, a period of growth in this sector, based on a typical market dynamics of the relation between investment and savings. The study does not address investment in infrastructure construction because it is a sector heavily influenced by discretionary government decisions. This monography aims to explore how the main macroeconomic variables could explain the investment in real estate construction. The study makes a multiple regression econometric analysis by taking data from the construction industry from the PAIC - Annual Survey of the Construction Industry, GDP, unemployment, inflation and investments provided by the IBGE, and SELIC rate data and FBPE savings provided by the Central Bank of Brazil . The period adopted is from 2002 to 2016 as these data are available in a consistent manner and in an environment of monetary stability. After several models explored, the study converges to a model where the SELIC and the FBPE Savings are the two explanatory variables of the real estate construction investment. Finally, an operational model is presented that uses the gross SELIC values and the existing FBPE savings volume.