Desindustrialização setorial brasileira na perspectiva do comércio exterior

Abstract

To reflect on the problem of deindustrialization is to understand the importance of the sector in the growth trajectory of the main economies in the world. The sectorally disaggregated analysis of deindustrialization demonstrates the differences that exist within the manufacturing sector, which, in turn, influence their ability to contribute to the growth of countries. In this perspective, the present work has as main objective to analyze the sectoral deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy in the period of 1948-2018, focusing on international trade. In addition to specific objectives such as: investigating the country's participation in world exports, highlighting the direct and indirect effect of trade relations between Brazil-China, through key variables in this process such as international trade, among others. Thus, the hypothesis underlying the study is that there is a reduction in the 'aggregate' and 'unbundled' participation in the Brazilian manufacturing sector, aggravated by the recent increase in competition with China in the foreign and domestic markets. The justification of the study considers the current state of knowledge and is based on the importance of contributing to the literature on the discussion of deindustrialization from the perspective of international trade through sectoral analysis. As an empirical strategy, the evolution in the participation of the variable’s employment, added value, international trade and the pattern of competition between Brazil and China in third markets was analyzed, these data integrate a time frame that comprises the years 1948 to 2018, aiming to offer a comprehensive diagnosis of early deindustrialization in Brazil. To this end, it carried out a methodology that is characterized as exploratory with a statistical focus that enables both a quantitative and qualitative description. The results of the aggregate analysis (1962-2018) indicate that there has been a process of deindustrialization in Brazil since 1985 from the perspective of international trade. The disaggregated analysis of the manufacturing sector in Brazil (1990-2018) shows a heterogeneity, with deindustrialization in some sectors of higher technology and industrialization in some of less technological intensity. Also, it was identified that China had a direct and indirect impact on the deindustrialization of different manufacturing sectors in the country, especially those with less technological intensity.