Análise do impacto da liderança nos blocos econômicos: o caso da Alemanha na União Europeia e do Brasil no Mercosul

Abstract

The general aim of this thesis was to identify the significance of the impact that the oscillations in the production of Brazil and Germany, in the short and medium term, have on the other countries members of the blocs they occupy, Mercosur and European Union, respectively. This analysis was carried out based on the approaches of the theory of Economic Integration and the formation of the economic blocs studied. The methodologies used were the Autoregressive Vectors - VAR and Vector Error Correction (VECM) models, with quarterly series of real GDP of the main countries of each bloc for the period between 1995 and 2016. During the analysis of the results, it is noted that the impact of the countries that are supposedly leaders of their blocs into the other members is mostly positive, both in the case of the European Union and in the case of Mercosur, but this impact was presented differently when compared within the two blocs. In the European bloc, there is a relatively similar response to the German impact in all countries, but with the formation of two sub-blocs with convergent results: one bloc containing the countries with the lowest GDP (Spain, Italy and Portugal) and another bloc with the most economically successful countries (France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). In the South American bloc, there is a complete divergence in results, with the only similarity between countries being the fact that the Brazilian impact is positive throughout the entire analyzed period. In addition, the case of Paraguay presents significant instability of the Brazilian influence, with unbalanced results throughout the period. Therefore, these results prove the significance of the impact of the leading countries on the other members of their bloc, and they are consistent with the theory of economic integration, proving that the more developed the form of integration, the greater the impact.