Fatores financeiros determinantes do stress fiscal dos estados brasileiros

Abstract

According to Trussel and Patrick (2018), there are three methodological issues that surface in the literature on financial distress: defining the existence, identifying the causes of financial distress and predicting the likelihood of financial distress. Thus, studies that develop explanatory and predictive models of fiscal stress are of fundamental importance. In recent years, it has been observed that some states have experienced problems in their public finances, for example, lack of payment to permanent employees, retirees and debt creditors. These facts were responsible for the poor financial condition of the states to the point that some declared a situation of financial calamity or fiscal stress. In view of this, the originality of this study is centered, in particular, on the introduction of innovations in the way of defining the existence of fiscal stress, then identify the causes of financial distress and, finally, predict the likelihood of occurrence. The study has analyzed data from the 26 Brazilian states and the Federal District in the periods from 2016 to 2019, using the logistic regression technique with panel data in a pooled econometric model with the inclusion of clusters. The dependent variable of the representative model of fiscal stress is a binary variable to demonstrate the presence or not of the state's fiscal stress event. It was built from content analysis of self-reported information in financial calamity decrees and laws, in reports of the Secretary of the National Treasury (STN), in annual financial reports and budgets. The independent variables are represented by indicators of cash, budgetary and long-term financial solvencies. The results demonstrate that the financial factors for the current and previous years, represented by the unpaid financial obligations, long-term debt and personnel expenses cause fiscal stress in Brazilian states. On the other hand, tax revenue and intergovernmental fiscal transfers from the States Participation Fund (FPE) for the current fiscal year decrease the probability of fiscal stress of Brazilian states. The results found in this research are corroborated by studies already incorporated into the literature, such as Shamsub and Akoto (2004), Trussel and Patrick (2009), Gregori and Marattin (2015), Gorina et al. (2018) and Dantas Jr. et al. (2019).