Impacto da urbanização nas temperaturas do ar e de superfície da região metropolitana de Fortaleza

Abstract

The Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza, in the state of Ceará, has an approximate population of 4.051 million inhabitants, more than half of this population is concentrated in Fortaleza. The increase in urban population has generated anxieties about the study of local and regional climate change in an attempt to understand the relationship between anthropogenic activities and possible changes in climate. In this way, the general objective of this research was to investigate the impact of urbanization on the air and surface temperatures of the Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza-CE (urban station) and Jaguaruana (rural station) for the period from 1980 to 2017. The dissertation is in In the first section, the purpose of this paper was to evaluate the applicability of three fault-filling methodologies in two meteorological stations in the State of Ceará. In order to reach the objective, data of the maximum and minimum mean air temperature of meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology and the variables of maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity of the air, radiation and wind speed were used on a regular basis (~ 25 x 25 km) coming from weather stations arranged over Brazil. The statistical methods multiple linear regression, Multivariate Imputation by Chained algorithm, Box-Jenkins model and the statistical errors (mean absolute error and root mean squared error) were used. The results showed that the multiple regression methods and the BoxJenkins model presented a difference in the mean of the statistical errors of 0.13 ° C and 0.08 ° C for the mean absolute error and root mean square error, respectively, for the Maximum temperature. E of 0.03 ° C and 0.02 ° C for the mean absolute error and root mean square error, respectively, for the minimum temperature. These results were smaller than the mean error difference between the Box-Jenkins model and the Multivariate Imputation by Chained algorithm, whose difference was 0.47 ° C and 0.50 ° C for the mean absolute error and root mean square error , respectively, to the maximum temperature. E of 0.44 ° C and 0.51 ° C for the mean absolute error and root mean square error, respectively, for the minimum temperature. Additionally, considering the assumptions of normality and independence of the residues, the Box-Jenkins model was more effective when compared to the other models for the process of forecasting data absent from climatological series. In the second article, the objective was to investigate the relationship between air and surface temperatures with the process of urbanization and land use and coverage. In this way, the data of average maximum air temperature and minimum, from the Box-Jenkins approach, for the period from 1980 to 2017 and satellite images of the Landsat 5-Thematic Mapper and Landsat 8-Operational Lande Imager / Thermal Infrared Sensor for the months of July 2006 and August 2017, respectively. In order to reach the objective, the parametric (Simple Linear Regression) and non-parametric (Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen) methods were used to investigate the tendency of air temperature in the urban (Metropolitan of Fortaleza) and rural (Jaguaruana) ; maximum likelihood-supervised classification method for land use change and land cover (Land Use Land Cover); steps of the Surface Energy Balance Algorithms for land method associated with the radiation balance were used to obtain the Land Surface Temperature estimation. The results obtained for the air temperature showed that: (i) a positive linear trend was observed in the mean maximum temperature for the urban station of 0.32°C / decade, while for the rural season, the trend was positive for the mean minimum temperature, but not statistically significant; (ii) the urbanization effect in relation to the mean maximum temperature between urban and rural stations was 0.15°C / decade, with a 46% contribution from urbanization; (iii) For surface temperature, in 2017 the Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza and Jaguaruana presented an increase in areas whose temperature was higher than 34°C, which corroborates the increase in the area of soil exposed in both regions between 2006 and 2017, verified on the Land Use Land Cover rating. Overall, urbanization has impacted on the increase in the maximum air temperature trend in the metropolitan region of Fortaleza and the establishment of a warmer regional climate pattern observed in the higher surface temperature and in the expansion of urban areas.