Market timing e criação de valor para o acionista sob a perspectiva da retenção de caixa

Abstract

This research aimed to investigate the relationship between cash retention and value creation for shareholders of companies that use the IPO as an opportune moment for market timing behavior in the Brazilian stock market. The study sample consisted of 108 non-financial companies listed on B3 that carried out an IPO between 2004 and 2017, divided into two groups, market timers and non-timers. In total, 202 IPOs occurred during the delimited period, in addition, the behavior of cash was analyzed during the eight quarters following the IPOs, resulting in 864 observations. To achieve the objective, two econometric models were proposed, one for each formulated hypothesis, and the data analysis method used was dynamic panel regression with one-stage GMM-Sys estimators. The financial data, necessary for the calculation of the variables that made up the econometric models, were collected using the Thomson Reuters Eikon® database. The evidence from the estimation of Model I confirmed the first hypothesis, that is: market timers retain more cash than non-timers. In turn, the evidence from the estimation of Model II rejected the second hypothesis, that is: there is no positive relationship between cash retention and value creation for shareholders of market timer companies. Thus, despite retaining more cash than non-timers, market timer companies showed a reduction in the value created for shareholders. It is possible to infer that this result derives from the high opportunity cost of idle cash, since, as market timing is an opportunistic practice, managers do not have an immediate destination for the constituted resource.