Análise das relações comerciais entre Brasil e China: uma abordagem utilizando o modelo de vetor de correção de erro

Abstract

The general aim of this thesis was to investigate how the Brazil-China trade balance of the balance of behavior responds to changes of the variables included in the model through the estimates of price elasticities (real exchange Brazil-China), and income elasticities (domestic and China), from january 1996 to march 2015, on a quarterly basis. The theoretical relationships of the approaches of the elasticities and absorption, about the determinants of trade balance were used. The methodologies used were models of autoregressive vectors (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC). It was observed that the commercial partnership between the two is crucial for the growth of the brazilian trade balance and the variables real exchange rate (R$/Yuan), brazilian income, China's income and balance of the Brazil-China trade balance maintain a balanced relationship to long term. The variables showed significant and showed signs according to the literature, except for the real exchange rate of the signal (R$/Yuan) and chinese income, which was not significant. Regarding theoretical approaches, it does not verify the presence of the J curve and Marshall Lerner condition that trading relationship is violated, for short-term currency devaluations did not help the trade surplus between the two countries in the long run; other results of the study indicate that the absorption approach is valid in the long run. According to the model, the income elasticity (domestic) long-term is greater in magnitude than the price elasticity (real exchange rate). That way, if subtends that the balance of trade between Brazil and China responds more elastically to changes in household income to changes in the real exchange rate in the long run. Therefore, control of the trade balance deficit between the two countries, it shows more sensitive when controlled by changes in domestic income.