Dinâmica da oferta de trabalho familiar no Brasil em um contexto de mudanças demográficas

Abstract

This thesis explores different dimensions of family labor supply in Brazil, with a specific focus on the observed changes in family arrangements. The fundamental hypothesis to be tested is whether the changes in family arrangements alter the household labor supply. Thus, in the first empirical application, the phenomenon of family labor supply polarization is investigated over the years 1993 to 2015 in urban Brazil, with the PNAD microdata. Over the years there has been an increase in the household joblessness rate, as well as an increase in the polarization of labor supply among households. The states in Northeastern Brazil have the highest household joblessness rates. The increase in the household joblessness rate results more from a distorted distribution of employment among families than changes in household structure. In addition, with the same data, I obtained the risk factors associated with the greater individual probability of living in a family without work. These were estimated from multinomial logistic regressions, so the chances of being in a household joblessness, living in a household where all the adults work, or being in a household where not all adults work. The results show that more educated adults are less likely to live in households without work. Regarding the characteristics of the household, living in larger families (in number of adults), single parents, and couples with children, represent lower risks of being in a family without work, over the years. Women living in households with high child dependency are more likely to be in workless households, and such chances are more significant than those observed for men. In the second empirical application, I investigate the connection between the labor supply and the unemployment of the head of the household (added worker effect), and whether this relationship differs over the years and between different generations. The PME microdata of the years between 2002 and 2015 are used to answer if the demographic transition process reflected on the families’ composition generates changes on the main determinants of the labor supply of wives, sons, and daughters. Through the multinomial probit and probit methodologies, with appropriate corrections of sample selectivity, the main results show that the process of activation in the workforce (transition from inactivity to occupation or unemployment) in younger generations, both for wives and for sons and daughters, seems to depend less on the working condition of the head of the household. For such generations the individual aspects and household characteristics are more relevant factors for the decision to offer work.