Modelos regionais de curvas de permanência de vazões para rios perenes, intermitentes e efêmeros, e seu emprego na calibração indireta de modelos de simulação hidrológica

Abstract

One of the main challenges to hydrological engineers refers to the estimation of variables needed to water resources planning and management in ungauged river basins. In order to face this challenge, techniques for transposing information, such as the hydrologic regional analyses, have been widely employed. In this Msc dissertation it is presented a method for regionalizing flow duration curves in perennial, intermittent and ephemeral rivers, followed by their use as a paradigm for calibrating the Rio Grande model for hydrological simulation. The method for regionalizing flow duration curves is based on the extended Burr XII probability distribution, since it shows great flexibility to fit data, with accurate reproduction of flow extremes. Criteria for evaluating performance, reliability and robustness of the regional models for flow duration curves are showed, in addition to a number of analyses related to the indirect calibration of the Rio Grande hydrologic simulation model to ungauged river basins located in the Brazilian states of Minas Gerais and Ceará.