Transportes e desenvolvimento regional: uma análise de equilíbrio geral computável sobre os impactos na melhoria da infra-estrutura de transporte rodoviário em Minas Gerais

Abstract

This study aims to have a broad understanding of the relationship between improvements in the road transportation, economic growth and regional inequality. Specifically, this study took into consideration the effects of the following projects: the addition of a second lane road to BR-381 in the segments between the cities of Belo Horizonte and Governador Valadares; the reconstruction of the segment of the road BR-262 between the cities of Belo Horizonte and Uberaba; the reconstruction of the segment of the road BR-116 between the border of Minas Gerais and Bahia state to the city of Governador Valadares, and the reconstruction of the segment of the road BR-116 between the city of Governador Valadares to the border of Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro state. This study utilized the transportation model HDM-4 to estimate the construction costs for the four projects and the transportation costs between 109 traffic zones, before and after the road improvements. Transportation costs changes measured by HDM-4 model were incorporated as a exogenous vector shock to the computable general equilibrium model B-MARIA-MG.Indexes of income, inter-regional inequality, competitivity, jobs, prices, tax revenue and efficiency were calculated for the 109 regions and 8 sector of the B-MARIA-MG model. As the empirical work described in this thesis, the results of the B- MARIA-MG model provided evidences that in the short term the inter-regional competition generated from better transport infrastructure in the state of Minas Gerais tended mainly to benefit the regions that were direct affected by the investments, and, in some cases, generated negative effects in other regions.