| dc.description.abstract | This assignment analyses the electricity consumption by the residential sector in the Belo Horizonte municipality according to income classes and end-uses. An analysis of the electricity consumption structure of the residential sector on the chosen Base Year (2005) is made, having as a primary base the research done by IBGE (PNAD) and the "Pesquisa de Posse de Equipamentos e Hábitos de Uso" Research on the Ownership of Equipment and Use Habits done by Eletrobrás/PROCEL. The total demand of electricity calculated for the Base Year was 1,336 GWh/year and the consumption was 1,342.82 GWh/year, resulting in a difference of less than 1%. After establishing the structure of consumption for the reference year, the LEAP program was used to make a projection of energy demand until the year 2030. Three scenarios were used to study this demand. The first one was the Scenario of Reference where a 4.1% per year GNP increase was considered, according to the tendency from 1971 to 2002; in this scenario the adopted hypothesis were conservatives. The second scenario is the Scenario of High Ownership and Efficiency, where the GNP grows at a 5.1% per year rate; in this scenario the adopted hypotheses are more optimistic and bold. The third scenario is the Scenario of Low Ownership and Efficiency where the GNP grows below the observed tendency in recent years. This rate is 3.2% per year and the hypotheses are more modest than the ones used on the previous scenarios. The Scenario of Reference presented a total electric energy, in 2030, demand of 1,810 GWh and a demand of 191 kWh/dwelling/month and 72 kWh/person/month. The Scenario of High Assets and Efficiency presented a total demand of 1,674 GWh and a demand of 176 kWh/dwelling/month and 66 kWh/person/month. The Scenario of Low Assets and Efficiency presented a total demand of 1,897 GWh and a demand of 200 kWh/dwelling/month and 75 kWh/person/month. All scenarios presented a smaller demand than the scenarios from PNE 2030 and bigger than the ones from Matriz Energética de Minas Gerais 2007-2030. The more efficient measures to lower the electricity demand were the exchange of more efficient lamps for the incandescent lamps and the use of other sources for bath water heating, like solar energy and gas. In all scenarios the biggest growth in demand was in the end-use of Environment Conditioning. A growth on the demand for the end-use Entertainment was also noticed. In all scenarios the analysis was done according to the end-uses and income classes. | |
