Valoración de la concesión Ruta del Sol tramo I por Opciones Reales: una alternativa de valor para la evaluación financiera de las concesiones en Colombia

Abstract

The following paper shows the valuation of “Ruta del Sol” highway concession -section 1- using discounted cash flow valuation and real options methodologies, taking into account the legal framework of government contracting, which regulates economic contributions according to the stages of construction, management and maintenance of the highway. The cash flow analysis takes into account the concession agreement which specifies each of the income and expense items provided and the way in which the licensee can appropriate state contributions to the extent of the executed work. The real options valuation shows how the option value is affected by the speed in which the licensee performs the construction phases in such a way that it turns out to be more favorable to execute the construction work faster. The paper finally shows the impacts on the value using real options methodology due to the fact that it permits the inclusion of concepts such as volatility and decision taking according to uncertainty. Therefore the option value changes against the value of discounted free cash flow valuation. Finally, the authors make conclusions and recommendations according to the obtained results.