Estimación del comportamiento de la demanda del pregrado en Economía para el Área Metropolitana de Bucaramanga. 2018, 2019-1

Abstract

In the investigation process, a literature review was conducted in the first instance that allowed us to observe the parameters of measurement of the behavior of the demand with respect to choosing an academic program. These parameters were contrasted with the theory of human capital, with the aim of identifying the variables that, according to the theory and the literature review, explain the choice of academic programs by individuals. With the identification of the variables, a survey was designed and executed for the first semester students (1st, 2nd and 3rd) of economics at the Universidad Santo Tomás, Universidad Autónoma de Bucramanga and the Universidad Industrial de Santander. The survey grouped both socioeconomic and perceptual components in order to obtain the necessary information to estimate the demand function Logit Multinominal. Indeed, the execution of the survey and the Logit modulation, allowed the development of the demand function that later allowed to predict the probability with which an applicant for economics would decide to study in one of the three universities observed (UNAB, USTA, UIS). The final result was two econometric models separated by the two types of variables studied in the research. It is concluded that the perceptual variables explain in greater proportion the demand function of the undergraduate degree in economics, than the socioeconomic variables.