Producción de estadísticas oficiales para el departamento de Cundinamarca basada en estimación en áreas pequeñas

Abstract

The estimation in small areas is a methodology used since the 70s by the statistical offices of countries such as Canada, the United States, England, Spain, Mexico, Australia, among others, some examples are the SAIPE1 project in the United States which seeks to generate income estimates and poverty indicators for districts schools, counties and states. The LAUS2 program produces monthly and annually estimates for the unemployment rate, for regions, states, counties, areas metropolitan areas and cities and the SAMHSA3 initiative that estimates abuse in the consumption of psychoactive substances in metropolitan areas in the United States. In Colombia, official statistics are currently not produced using estimation in small areas; reason why, this project aims to deepen the application of This methodology for the production of official statistics. The project is presented as a second phase of the FODEIN project approved in 2017 and entitled "Analysis of the living conditions of the municipalities of Cundinamarca "in charge of them authors of this proposal; in which, progress was made in a first application of the methodology for estimating unemployment rates and average income levels for municipalities of Cundinamarca, in this second phase, it is expected to optimize the technique used for the production of these statistics, exploring the adjustment of statistical models that consider the spatial variability (very common when working at the municipal level) and refining the models used from the macro-economic point of view, including information specific to the context of the analysis of unemployment rates and income levels that allow to obtain optimal predictions of these indicators.