Aplicación de opciones reales en proyectos de infraestructura vial : caso de inversión Odinsa

Abstract

Very often the valuations of projects carried out by professionals in finance are elaborated through methodologies that assume a single deterministic decision; some examples of these are the cash flow discount and the calculation of the internal rate of return (IRR). These practices have little room for maneuver and important strategic decisions are made (Cifuentes & Espinoza, 2016). However, the application of dynamic models such as real options has allowed greater flexibility in the modeling of financial scenarios and have become a tool much more in line with the variable environments of business (Mun, 2002). This situation imposes new legal and financial challenges to the Government and private investors, so that incoming infrastructure projects can be executed under the regulatory framework of public-private partnerships (PPP), generating economic and financial value and complying with technical standards required. The present work aims to implement the real options assessment methodology to the road infrastructure sector through an exercise applied to a real investment case of the International Engineering Organization SA, Odinsa, in the participation of a public-private initiative. Using this methodology, we can quantify the value hidden in the volatility of the project associated with demand risk. The results obtained, in addition to going in line with the generation of economic value, generate value for the company and give it additional elements to make informed investment decisions. Likewise, the real options become a tool that provides managers with greater bargaining power and flexibility vis-à-vis different actors in a process of assessment of road infrastructure projects.