El impacto de la tasa de cambio en la industria bananera de Colombia durante los años 2008-2019

Abstract

The Colombian banana industry occupies an important line within the country's non-mining energy exports, specifically the third most representative sector after coffee and flowers, respectively. Banana production in Colombia concentrates in the Magdalena and Urabá regions of Antioquia, and the country directs approximately 90% of the production to the international markets. However, both export revenues and export volumes depend, among many other variables, on the volatility of the exchange rate. During the period 2008-2019, the exchange rate variability has been a constant, with both appreciation and depreciation periods suggesting impacts on the Colombian banana industry's income and production. This paper develops a data panel gravitational model, in which the exchange rate is an explanatory variable of both income and production quantities. In accordance with the theoretical framework and the background studied, the results show that a depreciation of the Colombian peso to the US dollar generates increases in export income. Likewise, an appreciation of the Colombian peso to the US dollar explains increases in Colombian bananas' export volumes to the international market