dc.creator | Chintalapudi, Nalini | |
dc.creator | Battineni, Gopi | |
dc.creator | Sagaro, Getu Gamo | |
dc.creator | Amenta, Francesco | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-07-17T20:01:53Z | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-09-23T18:53:28Z | |
dc.date.available | 2020-07-17T20:01:53Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-09-23T18:53:28Z | |
dc.date.created | 2020-07-17T20:01:53Z | |
dc.identifier | 1201-9712 | |
dc.identifier | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.029 | |
dc.identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10803 | |
dc.identifier | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.029 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/3509217 | |
dc.description.abstract | Background: COVID-19 disease is becoming a global pandemic and more than 200 countries were affected
because of this disease. Italy is one of the countries is largely suffered with this virus outbreak, and about
180,000 cases (as of 20 April 2020) were registered which explains the large transmissibility and
reproduction case numbers.
Objective: In this study, we considered the Marche region of Italy to compute different daily transmission
rates (Rt) including five provinces in it. We also present forecasting of daily and cumulative incidences
associated after the next thirty days. The Marche region is the 8th in terms of number of people infected
in Italy and the first in terms of diffusion of the infection among the 4 regions of the center of Italy.
Methods: Epidemic statistics were extracted from the national Italian Health Ministry website. We
considered outbreak information where the first case registered in Marche with onset symptoms (26
February 2020) to the present date (20 April 2020). Adoption of incidence and projections with R
statistics was done.
Results: The median values of Rt for the five provinces of Pesaro and Urbano, Ancona, Fermo, Ascoli Piceno,
and Macerata, was 2.492 (1.1–4.5), 2.162 (1.0–4.0), 1.512 (0.75–2.75), 1.141 (1.0–1.6), and 1.792 (1.0–3.5)
with 95% of CI achieved. The projections at end of 30th day of the cumulative incidences 323 (95% CI), and
daily incidences 45 (95% CI) could be possible.
Conclusions: This study highlights the knowledge of essential insights into the Marche region in particular
to virus transmission dynamics, geographical characteristics of positive incidences, and the necessity of
implementing mitigation procedures to fight against the COVID-19 outbreak. | |
dc.publisher | Science Direct | |
dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | |
dc.source | reponame:Expeditio Repositorio Institucional UJTL | |
dc.source | instname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano | |
dc.subject | Reproduction number | |
dc.subject | COVID-19 outbreak | |
dc.subject | Marche | |
dc.subject | Projections | |
dc.subject | Serial interval | |
dc.title | COVID-19 outbreak reproduction number estimations and forecasting in Marche, Italy | |