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        • Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano (Colombia)
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        • Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano (Colombia)
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        Distinctive trajectories of COVID-19 epidemic by age and gender: a retrospective modeling of the epidemic in South Korea

        Registro en:
        https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.101
        http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10794
        https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.101
        http://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/3509165
        Autor
        Yu, Xinhua
        Duan, Jiasong
        Jiang, Yu
        Zhang, Hongmei
        Institución
        • Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano (Colombia)
        Resumen
        Objectives: Elderly people had suffered disproportional burden of COVID-19. We hypothesized that males and females in different age groups might have different epidemic trajectories. Methods: Using publicly available data from South Korea, daily new COVID-19 cases were fitted with generalized additive models, assuming Poisson and negative binomial distributions. Epidemic dynamics by age and gender groups were explored with interactions between smoothed time terms and age and gender. Results: A negative binomial distribution fitted the daily case counts best. Interaction between the dynamic patterns of daily new cases and age groups was statistically significant (p<0.001), but not with gender group. People aged 20-39 years led the epidemic processes in the society with two peaks: one major peak around March 1 and a smaller peak around April 7, 2020. The epidemic process among people aged 60 or above was trailing behind that of younger people with smaller magnitude. After March 15, there was a consistent decline of daily new cases among elderly people, despite large fluctuations of case counts among young adults. Conclusions: Although young people drove the COVID-19 epidemic in the whole society with multiple rebounds, elderly people could still be protected from virus infection after the peak of epidemic.
        Materias
        Epidemic dynamics
        Elderly
        Age interaction
        Gender interaction
        COVID-19
        South Korea
        Generalized additive model
        Negative binomial distribution

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        Red de Repositorios Latinoamericanos
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        Red de Repositorios Latinoamericanos
        + de 8.000.000 publicaciones disponibles
        500 instituciones participantes
        Dirección de Servicios de Información y Bibliotecas (SISIB)
        Universidad de Chile
        Ingreso Administradores
        Colecciones destacadas
        • Tesis latinoamericanas
        • Tesis argentinas
        • Tesis chilenas
        • Tesis peruanas
        Nuevas incorporaciones
        • Argentina
        • Brasil
        • Colombia
        • México
        Dirección de Servicios de Información y Bibliotecas (SISIB)
        Universidad de Chile
        Red de Repositorios Latinoamericanos | 2006-2018