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        • Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano (Colombia)
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        • Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano (Colombia)
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        Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in African countries and implications for prevention and control: A case study in South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria, Senegal and Kenya

        Registro en:
        0048-9697
        https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138959
        http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/10464
        https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138959
        http://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/3508511
        Autor
        Zhao, Zebin
        Li, Xin
        Liu, Feng
        Zhu, Gaofeng
        Ma, Chunfeng
        Wang, Liangxu
        Institución
        • Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano (Colombia)
        Resumen
        COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019) is globally spreading and the international cooperation is urgently required in joint prevention and control of the epidemic. Using the Maximum-Hasting (MH) parameter estimation method and the modified Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered (SEIR) model, the spread of the epidemic under three intervention scenarios (suppression, mitigation, mildness) is simulated and predicted in South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria, where the epidemic situations are severe. The studies are also conducted in Nigeria, Senegal and Kenya, where the epidemic situations are growing rapidly and the socio-economic are relatively under-developed, resulting in more difficulties in preventing the epidemic. Results indicated that the epidemic can be basically controlled in late April with strict control of scenario one, manifested by the circumstance in the South Africa and Senegal. Under moderate control of scenario two, the number of infected people will increase by 1.43–1.55 times of that in scenario one, the date of the epidemic being controlled will be delayed by about 10 days, and Algeria, Nigeria, and Kenya are in accordance with this situation. In the third scenario of weak control, the epidemic will be controlled by late May, the total number of infected cases will double that in scenario two, and Egypt is in line with this prediction. In the end, a series of epidemic controlling methods are proposed, including patient quarantine, close contact tracing, population movement control, government intervention, city and county epidemic risk level classification, and medical cooperation and the Chinese assistance.
        Materias
        COVID-19
        Parameter estimation
        SEIR
        Scenario analysis
        Prediction
        Africa

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        Red de Repositorios Latinoamericanos
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        Red de Repositorios Latinoamericanos
        + de 8.000.000 publicaciones disponibles
        500 instituciones participantes
        Dirección de Servicios de Información y Bibliotecas (SISIB)
        Universidad de Chile
        Ingreso Administradores
        Colecciones destacadas
        • Tesis latinoamericanas
        • Tesis argentinas
        • Tesis chilenas
        • Tesis peruanas
        Nuevas incorporaciones
        • Argentina
        • Brasil
        • Colombia
        • México
        Dirección de Servicios de Información y Bibliotecas (SISIB)
        Universidad de Chile
        Red de Repositorios Latinoamericanos | 2006-2018