A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme to investigate the association between transmission rate of COVID-19 and meteorological factors on plains in China
Autor
Lin, Changqing
Lau, Alexis K.H.
Fung, Jimmy C.H.
Guo, Cui
Chan, Jimmy W.M.
Yeung, David W.
Zhang, Yumiao
Bo, Yacong
Hossain, Md Shakhaoat
Zeng, Yiqian
Qian Lao, Xiang
Institución
Resumen
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in Hubei province, China, has become a
pandemic. However, data regarding the effects of meteorological factors on its transmission are limited and inconsistent. A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme was developed to investigate the association between
the scaled transmission rate (STR) of COVID-19 and the meteorological parameters in 20 provinces/municipalities located on the plains in China. We obtained information on the scale of population migrated from Wuhan, the
world epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak, into the study provinces/municipalities using mobile-phone positioning system and big data techniques. The highest STRs were found in densely populated metropolitan areas and in
cold provinces located in north-eastern China. Population density had a non-linear relationship with disease
spread (linearity index, 0.9). Among various meteorological factors, only temperature was significantly associated with the STR after controlling for the effect of population density. A negative and exponential relationship
was identified between the transmission rate and the temperature (correlation coefficient, −0.56; 99% confidence level). The STR increased substantially as the temperature in north-eastern China decreased below
0 °C (the STR ranged from 3.5 to 12.3 when the temperature was between −9.41 °C and −13.87 °C), whilst
the STR showed less temperature dependence in the study areas with temperate weather conditions (the STR
was 1.21 ± 0.57 when the temperature was above 0 °C). Therefore, a higher population density was linearly
whereas a lower temperature (b0 °C) was exponentially associated with an increased transmission rate of
COVID-19. These findings suggest that the mitigation of COVID-19 spread in densely populated and/or cold regions will be a great challenge.